12306 Barbizon Dr · Houston, TX 77089

$350,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1976 7,614 sqft lot Est $284k · 23% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SPACIOUS SINGLE STORY HOME IN SAGEMONT. PROPERTY IS IN NEED OF TLC BUT HAS GREAT POTENTIAL! 4 BEDROOMS PLUS A POOL/HOT TUB. QUICK ACCESS TO I-45 AND NEARBY SHOPPING AND DINING AT BAYBROOK MALL. CALL TO SCHEDULE YOUR PERSONAL SHOWING TODAY

Key facts

• Ideally located
• Hot tub
• Backyard oasis

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• BACKYARD OASIS
• HOT TUB
• IDEALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Goodwin & Company; Annual association fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1976; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool with spa combo; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 12); Four additional first-floor bedrooms: 11 x 11, 10 x 10, 11 x 10, 12 x 10
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Seller disclosure available; Subdivision lot setting; Fenced backyard
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookups with electric and gas dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-932 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (47.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (44.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (47.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fred Roberts Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 545 students, 80% FRL); The Summit (High School) (reading 24%, 148 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,438 (47.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.41%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,116
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12306 Barbizon Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,044 (0%)	4mo	$180,000	$88	90
12515 Gotham Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (-7%)	2mo	$252,499	$133	62
12030 Parkers Hideaway Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,092 (+2%)	0mo	$289,900	$139	53
12402 Gershwin Oak St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,949 (-5%)	11mo	$319,777	$164	52
12514 Ramla Place Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,857 (-9%)	4mo	$318,000	$171	51
11439 Davenwood Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,738 (-15%)	4mo	$246,500	$142	48
10730 Acacia Forest Trl	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (+8%)	9mo	$340,000	$155	41
12411 Gershwin Oak St	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,336 (+14%)	2mo	$315,000	$135	40
10614 Acacia Forest Trl	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (+8%)	6mo	$345,000	$157	38
12631 Barbizon Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,768 (-14%)	13mo	$225,000	$127	37
10926 Pigeonwood Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,802 (-12%)	8mo	$239,000	$133	34
12219 Wessex Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,744 (-15%)	0mo	$225,000	$129	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-115,042
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-172,421
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77089

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,639/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-932

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,124

Max offer price $185,438

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12415 Jasmine Brook Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,099	$1.32	2d	1	0.51mi
12006 Pompton Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2486	$1,850	$0.74	43d	1	0.56mi
11438 Brook Meadow Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	22d	1	0.94mi
11511 Grapewood Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,800	$1.13	2d	1	0.97mi
11203 Sagehill Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,900	$1.08	5d	1	1.29mi
12018 Country Orchard Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2624	$2,300	$0.88	17d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 396-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $350,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,639 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$766/yr (+$64/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,639
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$17,774
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,266
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,741
• Household income: $88,140
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22% White 19% Asian 17% Black 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 33% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.31%
• Current HPI: 249.5438
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+84.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,639 · +23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.