Pearce Plan · Houston, TX 77532

$182,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Townhouse · 122 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Designed for convenient and modern living, this new single-story home features a breezy and open layout. The foyer leads to a peninsula-style kitchen overlooking the dining area and family room, with a rear door extending to the backyard. Throughout the home are two secondary bedrooms and a tranquil owner's suite with an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. A versatile two-car garage completes this floorplan.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• OPEN LAYOUT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO-CAR GARAGE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $183k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $183k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $161,031 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,648
• Equity at exit: $27,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,444
• Equity at exit: $15,822

Cash invested: $51,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$960
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$229 /mo · $2,745/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,601

Max offer price $182,990

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,748
• Closing costs: $5,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	24d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,990 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,990 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,990 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,990 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,990 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,990 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $182,990 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $182,990 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $182,990 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $182,990 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $182,990 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,990 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-02-16
    listed $232,990 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Designed for convenient and modern living, this new single-story home features a breezy and open layout. The foyer leads to a peninsula-style kitchen overlooking the dining area and family room, with a rear door extending to the backyard. Throughout the home are two secondary bedrooms and a tranquil owner's suite with an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. A versatile two-car garage completes this floorplan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,250
• − Property taxes: −$2,745
• − Insurance: −$915
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − Depreciation: −$5,323
• Taxable income: $80
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19
• After-tax cash flow: $2,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and cleaning of gutters to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Both Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $232,990 Zillow