11 William St · Terryville, CT 06786

$129,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1910 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unique opportunity to earn sweat equity, this home needs rehab and is waiting for the right person to take ownership, Has central a/c. No electricity to home. Town has it listed as a 5 bedroom 1 bath. Home has a nice deep lot. This will not pass FHA, CFHA, USDA, loans. There is a possibility this will be a short sale.

Key facts

• Deep lot
• Central a/c
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• CENTRAL A/C
• DEEP LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#84 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Plymouth School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #78 of 153 in CT (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harry S. Fisher Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #318 of 553 statewide, top 60%, 304 students, 47% FRL); Terryville High School (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C-, #63 of 194 statewide, top 39%, 367 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 22% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.25%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,096
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Diamond St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (+6%)	6mo	$370,000	$259	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,996
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $16,656
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06786

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,816/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,333

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $287	+0% $250	+5% $213	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $185	+0% $250	+5% $315	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $283	base $250	+0.5pp $217	+1.0pp $182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
78 Kearney St Terryville, CT	4.0	2.0	1747	$1,650	$0.94	15d	1	0.05mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-07-17
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-06-30
   listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,816 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,816 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,816
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$267
• After-tax cash flow: $2,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plymouth School District
• NCES district ID: 0903330
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $71,517
• Composite: 44.78/100
• National rank: #2743
• State rank: #78 of 153 in CT

Livability — Terryville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #6301

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Terryville, CT
• City population: 9,617
• Population (ZIP): 9,617

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 11% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.57%
• Current HPI: 201.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-17 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $129,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,816 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.