None · Indian Mountain Lake, PA 18058

$289,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1994 0.35 ac lot Est $272k · 7% over $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4188 Forest Dr -- a charming ranch home nestled in a peaceful lake community in Kunkletown with partial lake views! Offered for the very first time, this lovingly maintained home has had just one owner since it was built. Inside, you'll find 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a large living area featuring a cozy fireplace, and a perfectly sized eat-in kitchen ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The home also offers plenty of storage space and a convenient one-car garage. Whether you're searching for the perfect starter home, a relaxing vacation getaway, or a place to make your own, this home is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Don't miss the opportuni

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Cozy fireplace
• Partial lake views

Tags

• PARTIAL LAKE VIEWS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $300 (approximately $25/month); Community playground; Community basketball court

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Open paved parking (2 spaces); Driveway
• Utilities: Private water; Mound septic
• Home design: House (single-family residential); Above-grade finished living area approximately 1,400; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as a residential single-family house
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Ceiling fans; Storage; Blinds; Fireplace (living room, propane); Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.6% in Indian Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,349 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $290k implies a 1899% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $275,000 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2121 Sassafras Ln	0.03mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,350 (-4%)	5mo	$160,000	$119	82
4195 Forest Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (-1%)	12mo	$345,000	$250	81
148 Acorn Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,310 (-6%)	8mo	$249,900	$191	71
1619 Sugar Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,342 (-4%)	5mo	$254,000	$189	68
149 Poplar Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-7%)	18mo	$279,900	$215	62
179 El Do Lake Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	7mo	$310,000	$194	59
117 Acorn Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,528 (+9%)	10mo	$315,000	$206	59
135 Acorn Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,597 (+14%)	2mo	$350,000	$219	57
8726 E Nottingham Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-3%)	9mo	$225,000	$166	55
104 Acorn Ln	0.33mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,500 (+7%)	15mo	$315,000	$210	51
8713 Lincoln Green Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (+5%)	17mo	$269,900	$184	51
9002 Robinhood Dr	0.60mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,204 (-14%)	13mo	$85,000	$71	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $101,381
• Equity at exit: $186,837

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $286,707
• Equity at exit: $342,858

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18058

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,563/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,485

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $292	+0% $210	+5% $127	+10% $45
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $101	+0% $210	+5% $318	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $283	base $210	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Iowa Rd Albrightsville, PA	3.0	1.0	930	$2,750	$2.96	24d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $289,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-29
   listed $289,900 Active
5. 1993-11-15
   soldstatus $14,500
6. 1988-05-02
   soldstatus $26,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,563 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,072 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$509/yr (+$42/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$3,563
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$2,265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$544
• After-tax cash flow: $3,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4219290
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $61,593
• Composite: 37.18/100
• National rank: #4476
• State rank: #297 of 539 in PA

Livability — Indian Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1349
• US rank: #16713

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,884

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 188.6013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+977.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $289,900 PMAR
• 1993-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records
• 1988-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $26,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,563 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.