1838 Stonechat · Canyon Lake, TX 78130

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily · 253 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $135/sqft · 15% below area Est $266k · 15% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-903/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Klein Road El (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 697 students, 46% FRL); New Braunfels Middle (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,301 students, 44% FRL); New Braunfels H S (math 53% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,926 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 2782 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $191,353 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,099
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -15.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1854 Stonechat	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	0mo	$214,500	$129	100
1921 Stonechat	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-2%)	1mo	$250,999	$154	90
1830 Nuthatch Rdg	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	2mo	$228,999	$137	89
1885 Stonechat	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+11%)	1mo	$238,999	$129	77
1929 Stonechat	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+14%)	0mo	$265,199	$139	70
1810 Nuthatch Rdg	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+11%)	1mo	$229,999	$124	69
3545 Hilts Trl	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-4%)	1mo	$205,599	$128	69
3533 Hilts Trl	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-4%)	1mo	$214,999	$134	69
3563 Prominence St	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-4%)	1mo	$220,299	$138	67
1836 Nuthatch Rdg	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	1mo	$211,999	$144	65
2675 Diamondback Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-11%)	1mo	$259,000	$174	56
2471 Pechora Pipit	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (-13%)	2mo	$214,900	$148	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-46,811
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-68,407
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 123 active · 87 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $269,990 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 110 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 2782
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,009

Max offer price $214,113

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $3	+0% $-75	+5% $-153	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-151	+0% $-75	+5% $0	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-18	base $-75	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1941 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,500	$1.23	106d	1	0.03mi
3031 Shore Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,675	$1.13	56d	1	0.07mi
2902 Shore Lark New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,595	$0.96	29d	1	0.09mi
1881 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,595	$1.27	100d	1	0.11mi
1878 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2162	$1,600	$0.74	10d	1	0.11mi
2906 Green Finch Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	43d	1	0.17mi
2906 Green Finch Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	29d	1	0.17mi
3943 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,695	$1.10	94d	1	0.18mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	100d	1	0.18mi
2915 Whinchat Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	42d	1	0.19mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	97d	1	0.19mi
2867 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	67d	1	0.19mi
2907 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,695	$1.17	83d	1	0.19mi
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	139d	1	0.20mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	139d	1	0.20mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,875	$1.12	10d	1	0.21mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	119d	1	0.21mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,875	$1.12	60d	1	0.21mi
2855 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,545	$1.06	29d	1	0.22mi
2855 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,695	$1.20	67d	1	0.22mi
3964 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	75d	1	0.22mi
2834 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,995	$1.05	119d	1	0.24mi
2831 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1901	$1,849	$0.97	139d	1	0.24mi
2823 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,595	$0.96	4d	1	0.28mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	139d	1	0.28mi
2824 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,050	$1.09	40d	1	0.29mi
2824 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1845	$2,050	$1.11	0d	1	0.29mi
2810 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$1,850	$0.97	40d	1	0.29mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	100d	1	0.30mi
1945 Redstart New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,550	$1.08	43d	1	0.30mi
2824 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1910	$2,100	$1.10	7d	1	0.30mi
2824 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1910	$2,100	$1.10	24d	1	0.30mi
2802 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$1,995	$1.06	139d	1	0.31mi
2808 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,650	$1.36	110d	1	0.32mi
1201 Legend Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	139d	1	0.32mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	112d	1	0.37mi
4628 Klein Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,795	$1.01	7d	1	0.38mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	99d	1	0.38mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	56d	1	0.38mi
3952 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1910	$1,795	$0.94	100d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $225,000 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $225,000 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $225,000 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $225,000 Active 249 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 246 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $225,000 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $225,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $225,000 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $225,000 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    statusdays on market $225,000 Active 233 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $225,000 Price Change 232 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $225,000 Price Change 229 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $225,000 Price Change 228 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $225,000 Price Change 227 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $225,000 Price Change 226 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $225,000 Price Change 225 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    pricestatusdays on market $225,000 Price Change 223 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $228,500 Active 222 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $228,500 Active 221 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $228,500 Active 220 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $228,500 Active 219 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $228,500 Active 218 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $228,500 Active 217 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $228,500 Active 216 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $228,500 Active 215 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $228,500 Active 214 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $228,500 Active 213 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $228,500 Active 212 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $228,500 Active 211 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $228,500 Active 209 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $228,500 Active 208 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $228,500 Active 207 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $228,500 Active 206 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $228,500 Active 204 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $228,500 Active 203 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $228,500 Active 202 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $228,500 Active 201 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $228,500 Active 198 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $228,500 Active 197 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $228,500 Active 196 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $228,500 Active 195 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $228,500 Active 193 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $228,500 Active 191 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $228,500 Active 190 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $228,500 Active 189 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,745
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,139
• After-tax cash flow: $236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,335–$25,005 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern layout and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through cosmetic upgrades and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Klein Road El D- TX #1,080/4,322 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle New Braunfels Middle D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High New Braunfels H S Ninth Grade Center F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Braunfels ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,945
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #2931
• State rank: #157 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 196,854 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $229,500 LERA
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $230,000 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $235,000 LERA
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $240,000 LERA
• 2026-01-14 Listed $245,000 LERA
• 2025-12-26 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2025-12-19 Pending — LERA
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $288,999 LERA
• 2025-10-22 Listed $293,999 LERA