9545 Gross St · Beaumont, TX 77707

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $210k · 10% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-loved 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, space, and a great layout for everyday living or entertaining. A great addition to the home is the enclosed room off of the living room that can be used as an office, craft room or playroom for the kids. Enjoy a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy for the primary suite, along with an open kitchen that’s perfect for gathering with family and friends. The spacious backyard offers endless possibilities—plenty of room for play, gardening, or outdoor entertaining. A large storage building with a loft provides extra space for hobbies, storage, or even a future workshop. Don’t miss your chance to make this charm

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Split floor plan
• Enclosed room

Tags

• ENCLOSED ROOM
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($707/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.3% in Beaumont — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#739 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Beaumont ISD (urban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #789 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Amelia El (math 8% / reading 15%, grade F, #4,225 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 544 students, 84% FRL); Vincent Middle (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 688 students, 75% FRL); West Brook Sr H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,245 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,751
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9310 Josey St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-7%)	16mo	$69,000	$49	61
9510 Shepherd Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-14%)	1mo	$182,000	$140	60
9710 Mapes St	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,664 (+10%)	14mo	$229,000	$138	54
1745 Shirley Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-10%)	8mo	$195,000	$143	49
9410 Guy Cir	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,282 (-15%)	10mo	$178,000	$139	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-26,740
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,910
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77707

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$406 /mo · $4,868/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,868

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $112	+0% $59	+5% $5	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-18	+0% $59	+5% $136	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $107	base $59	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9260 Josey St Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	45d	1	0.31mi
9225 Shepherd Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,495	$1.32	45d	1	0.40mi
120 Smelker St Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,795	$1.38	15d	1	0.69mi
2065 88th Cir Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,800	$1.03	25d	1	0.94mi
405 Harbor Oaks Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,600	$1.42	25d	1	1.03mi
434 Harbor Oaks Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	25d	1	1.07mi
1625 Glendale St Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,800	$1.35	45d	1	1.30mi
8960 Manion Dr Beaumont, TX	2.0	2.5	1358	$1,550	$1.14	45d	1	1.32mi
1069 Green Meadow St Beaumont, TX	2.0	2.0	1556	$1,795	$1.15	46d	1	1.39mi
976 Sunmeadow Dr Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.5	1656	$1,995	$1.20	15d	1	1.43mi
976 Sunmeadow Dr Unit 05/04/26 Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.5	1656	$2,150	$1.30	45d	1	1.43mi
9540 Glen Meadow Ln Beaumont, TX	3.0	2.5	2045	$2,295	$1.12	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-17
   price $189,000
3. 2025-11-26
   price $199,000
4. 2025-11-14
   listed $211,000 Active
5. 2022-01-10
   soldstatus
6. 2021-10-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,868 · $406/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,868 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$4,868
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$557
• After-tax cash flow: $1,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809670
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,683
• Composite: 15.43/100
• National rank: #9316
• State rank: #789 of 826 in TX

Livability — Beaumont

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #13710

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beaumont, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 125,901
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,323
• Household income: $69,756
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 596.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 18% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.16%
• Current HPI: 167.8109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $189,000 BBOR
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $199,000 BBOR
• 2025-11-14 Listed $211,000 BBOR
• 2022-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,868 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.