1016 Pine Creek Dr · Nolensville, TN 37014

$1,044,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,140 sqft · Other public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2022 0.26 ac lot $252/sqft · at area comps Est $1048k · at est. $85/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Better-than-new!! Home features an open floor plan with 10ft ceilings on the main level. Hardie board exterior & hardwood flooring throughout (except in secondary BR's). Chef’s kitchen features double stack cabinets w/crown molding, quartz countertops & island, tile backsplash, butler’s pantry, and stainless steel appliances. Primary suite is on the main level w/separate garden tub & deluxe shower in primary bath. Bonus/Flex room up & Study/Office down. $10K in Designer Window Coverings, 2 laundry rooms, quartz in all full bathrooms, shiplap & batten, designer finishes & designer lighting. Attached 3 car garage, Rainbird irrigation system, covered back patio, & upper balcony. Minutes from Arrington Vineyards with easy access to I-840 & Hwy 96.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $1.04M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $856 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $903k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $903k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.2% in Nolensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#2 in TN, #2,317 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: College Grove Elementary (math 72% / reading 59%, grade B+, #37 of 952 statewide, top 4%, 768 students, 0% FRL); Spring Station Middle School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade D, #30 of 333 statewide, top 9%, 828 students, 0% FRL); Summit High School (math 9% / reading 62%, grade F, #38 of 332 statewide, top 11%, 1,708 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $76k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $292k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$121k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($919k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $903,001 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.51%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,048,065
• List price: $1,044,000
• Delta: -0.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $389,462
• Equity at exit: $692,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $1,094,172
• Equity at exit: $1,288,146

Cash invested: $292,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37014

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,475
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,397/yr
• Insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,896
• Net cashflow: $856

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,947

Max offer price $1,044,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,447	-5% $1,151	+0% $856	+5% $560	+10% $265
Rent	-10% $142	-5% $499	+0% $856	+5% $1,212	+10% $1,569
Rate	-1.0pp $1,382	-0.5pp $1,121	base $856	+0.5pp $585	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $261,000
• Closing costs: $31,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6605 Goshawk Ct Arrington, TN	5.0	5.5	5835	$11,900	$2.04	19d	1	1.16mi
1301 Ashby Valley Ln Arrington, TN	4.0	4.5	4282	$6,500	$1.52	25d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,044,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,044,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,044,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,044,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,044,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,044,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,044,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,044,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,044,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,044,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,044,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,044,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,044,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-02-13
    listed $1,097,000 Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Better-than-new!! Home features an open floor plan with 10ft ceilings on the main level. Hardie board exterior & hardwood flooring throughout (except in secondary BR's). Chef’s kitchen features double stack cabinets w/crown molding, quartz countertops & island, tile backsplash, butler’s pantry, and stainless steel appliances. Primary suite is on the main level w/separate garden tub & deluxe shower in primary bath. Bonus/Flex room up & Study/Office down. $10K in Designer Window Coverings, 2 laundry rooms, quartz in all full bathrooms, shiplap & batten, designer finishes & designer lighting. Attached 3 car garage, Rainbird irrigation system, covered back patio, & upper balcony. Minutes from Arrington Vineyards with easy access to I-840 & Hwy 96.

15. 2026-02-06
    historical $1,097,000 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Better-than-new!! Home features an open floor plan with 10ft ceilings on the main level. Hardie board exterior & hardwood flooring throughout (except in secondary BR's). Chef’s kitchen features double stack cabinets w/crown molding, quartz countertops & island, tile backsplash, butler’s pantry, and stainless steel appliances. Primary suite is on the main level w/separate garden tub & deluxe shower in primary bath. Bonus/Flex room up & Study/Office down. $10K in Designer Window Coverings, 2 laundry rooms, quartz in all full bathrooms, shiplap & batten, designer finishes & designer lighting. Attached 3 car garage, Rainbird irrigation system, covered back patio, & upper balcony. Minutes from Arrington Vineyards with easy access to I-840 & Hwy 96.

16. 2025-12-02
    price $1,089,000
17. 2025-12-02
    historical
18. 2025-11-19
    price $1,079,000
19. 2025-11-19
    price $1,087,000
20. 2025-10-06
    price $1,089,000
21. 2025-09-18
    price $1,087,000
22. 2025-08-08
    price $1,089,000
23. 2025-07-09
    listed $1,125,000 Active
24. 2025-07-06
    historical
25. 2023-12-19
    historical $4,900
26. 2023-12-14
    soldstatus $965,900
27. 2023-12-13
    soldstatus $965,900 Closed
28. 2023-12-02
    status Pending
29. 2023-11-19
    listed $4,900
30. 2023-10-23
    price $965,900
31. 2023-10-05
    price $995,900
32. 2023-09-07
    listed $999,000 Active
33. 2022-12-21
    soldstatus $998,600 Closed
34. 2022-11-15
    status Pending
35. 2022-10-31
    historical
36. 2022-10-31
    listed $998,600 Active
37. 2022-10-27
    price $997,600
38. 2022-10-07
    price $1,007,600
39. 2022-09-23
    price $1,037,600
40. 2022-09-09
    price $1,038,600
41. 2022-09-01
    price $1,039,600
42. 2022-06-24
    listed $1,038,600 Active
43. 2022-06-15
    historical
44. 2022-06-13
    status Active
45. 2022-06-03
    listed $977,000 Active
46. 2022-06-02
    historical
47. 2022-02-04
    historical
48. 2022-02-01
    price $943,370
49. 2022-02-01
    status Active
50. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus $1,767,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,397 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,412 · $618/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,015/yr (+$335/mo · 118.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $108,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$58,480
• − Property taxes: −$3,397
• − Insurance: −$5,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,669
• − Management: −$8,669
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$30,371
• Taxable loss: −$7,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,792
• After-tax cash flow: $12,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson County
• NCES district ID: 4704530
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $103,392
• Composite: 54.94/100
• National rank: #1307
• State rank: #1 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nolensville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #2317

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,409
• Population (ZIP): 3,633

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 275,925 people
• By 2030: 308,630 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 374,403 · +35.7%
• By 2050: 438,644 · +59.0%
• By 2075: 592,763 · +114.8%
• By 2100: 691,828 · +150.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 12% Slovak 1% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.0% · R 65.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+26.1 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.54%
• Current HPI: 498.4505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+35.1% since first listed

50 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $1,097,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Coming Soon $1,097,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $1,089,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $1,079,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $1,087,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $1,089,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $1,087,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $1,089,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listed $1,125,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-06 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-19 Rental Removed $4,900 RENT.
• 2023-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $965,900 Public Records
• 2023-12-13 Sold (MLS) $965,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-02 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-19 Listed for Rent $4,900 RENT.
• 2023-10-23 Price Changed $965,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-05 Price Changed $995,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-07 Listed $999,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-21 Sold (MLS) $998,600 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-15 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-31 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-31 Listed $998,600 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-27 Price Changed $997,600 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $1,007,600 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-23 Price Changed $1,037,600 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $1,038,600 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Price Changed $1,039,600 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-24 Listed $1,038,600 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-15 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-13 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Listed $977,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-02 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-04 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-01 Price Changed $943,370 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-01 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $1,767,650 Public Records
• 2022-01-08 Price Changed $918,370 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-03 Listed $913,370 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-02 Price Changed $913,370 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-27 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $1,050,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-08 Price Changed $887,285 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-08 Price Changed $888,620 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-01 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-10 Price Changed $822,135 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-10 Price Changed $881,585 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-01 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-25 Price Changed $817,135 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-10 Listed $812,135 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+68.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,397 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.