1233 Nehalem Ave · Rockaway Beach, OR 97136

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1986 5,662 sqft lot $454/sqft · 16% above area Est $413k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Beach access
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD DECK
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• EXTRA PARKING FOR A BOAT OR RV
• VINYL WINDOWS
• FULL LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $419k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 6.6% in Rockaway Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#94 in OR, #4,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $425k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $418,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.75%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $412,994
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: 2.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 S Palisade St	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	893 (-5%)	8mo	$494,000	$553	74
138 N Dolphin St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	869 (-7%)	3mo	$353,000	$406	64
243 S Grayling St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,067 (+14%)	0mo	$499,000	$468	64
243 N Juniper St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	990 (+6%)	15mo	$490,000	$495	63
409 Nehalem Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	951 (+2%)	23mo	$390,999	$411	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-1,146
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $85,744
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97136

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,778/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$962
• Net cashflow: $1,066

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,233

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 N 3rd Ave Rockaway Beach, OR	2.0	1.0	762	$3,000	$3.94	43d	1	0.27mi
145 N Dolphin St Rockaway Beach, OR	2.0	2.0	1020	$6,000	$5.88	43d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

3. 2026-04-27
   status Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

4. 2026-04-27
   status Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

5. 2026-04-04
   status Pending 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

6. 2026-04-04
   status Pending 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

7. 2026-04-03
   status Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

8. 2026-04-02
   status Pending 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

9. 2026-03-28
   listed $425,000 Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

10. 2026-03-27
    listed $425,000 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Well-maintained one-level 3BD/2BA home with attached 1-car garage, located just 0.5 miles from beach access and downtown Rockaway. Set on a level lot with a private backyard deck, mature landscaping, and extra parking for a boat or RV. Interior features include vinyl windows, new carpet in the bedrooms, a forced air electric furnace, and a full laundry room. The home shows pride of ownership throughout- clean, comfortable, and truly move-in ready. Ideal as a full-time residence or a turnkey coastal retreat. All furniture currently in home included in sale. Call to schedule a showing today!

11. 2005-06-23
    soldstatus $138,500
12. 2005-06-23
    soldstatus $138,500
13. 2005-05-27
    listed $139,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,122 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,344/yr (+$195/mo · 131.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥76°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$1,778
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,399
• − Management: −$4,399
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable income: $6,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,468
• After-tax cash flow: $11,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56
• NCES district ID: 4108650
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,437
• Composite: 41.68/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #62 of 183 in OR

Livability — Rockaway Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #4777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockaway Beach, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,422

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+204.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — OCMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — OCMLS
• 2026-04-04 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-04 Pending — OCMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $425,000 OCMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $425,000 RMLS
• 2005-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $138,500 Public Records
• 2005-06-23 Sold (MLS) $138,500 OCMLS
• 2005-05-27 Listed $139,500 OCMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,778 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.