263 Sumner Pl · Buffalo, NY 14211

$170,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1940 3,240 sqft lot Est $215k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pack your bags and move right in! This 4 bedroom/1.5 bath, recently renovated house located within minutes of EVERYTHING has much to offer. Some of the great features include enclosed front porch, finished attic (2 bonus rooms)with new subfloor, full dry basement, large fully-fenced yard and off street parking. Renovations include, but are not limited to, complete tear-off roof, additional bath(half), 6-ft fence, plumbing, hot water tank, electric panels and meter, ALL new windows, glass block windows in basement, some light fixtures, new tub surround, bathroom vanity. Freshly painted inside and out including basement. You have heard it before but this is no joke, this home will not last long. Showings and negotiations begin immediately.

Key facts

• In-law suite
• Fully fenced yard
• 3,240 sq ft lot

Tags

• IN-LAW SUITE
• FINISHED ATTIC BONUS ROOM
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,632/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $163,183 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Antwerp St	0.17mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,739 (-7%)	1mo	$185,000	$106	72
94 Keystone St	0.30mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,911 (+2%)	6mo	$272,000	$142	71
239 Keystone St	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,632 (-13%)	10mo	$250,000	$153	66
102 Crossman Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,851 (-1%)	1mo	$225,000	$122	63
406 Doat St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,115 (+13%)	2mo	$160,000	$76	56
674 Walden Ave	0.23mi	5/1.5 (+1)	2,066 (+10%)	14mo	$165,000	$80	56
22 Zenner St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,701 (-9%)	14mo	$90,000	$53	50
234 Bakos Blvd	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,105 (+12%)	12mo	$315,000	$150	41
16 Euclid Ave	0.69mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (-7%)	16mo	$200,000	$115	36
34 Rogers Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,603 (-14%)	12mo	$168,000	$105	31
100 Bakos Blvd	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,111 (+13%)	20mo	$300,000	$142	29
74 Crossman Ave	0.64mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,122 (+13%)	17mo	$245,000	$115	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $19,386
• Equity at exit: $67,505

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $69,736
• Equity at exit: $97,557

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $173	+0% $114	+5% $56	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-15	-5% $50	+0% $114	+5% $179	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $158	base $114	+0.5pp $70	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
96 Academy Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2247	$1,400	$0.62	24d	1	0.25mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	19d	1	0.57mi
979 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	2d	1	0.60mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	2d	1	0.66mi
1777 Broadway Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	44d	1	0.81mi
1202 Walden Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	17d	1	0.99mi
79 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2528	$1,250	$0.49	44d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-11
   listed $170,000 Active
4. 2024-01-26
   soldstatus $155,000
5. 2024-01-22
   soldstatus $155,000 Closed 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Pack your bags and move right in! This 4 bedroom/1.5 bath, recently renovated house located within minutes of EVERYTHING has much to offer. Some of the great features include enclosed front porch, finished attic (2 bonus rooms)with new subfloor, full dry basement, large fully-fenced yard and off street parking. Renovations include, but are not limited to, complete tear-off roof, additional bath(half), 6-ft fence, plumbing, hot water tank, electric panels and meter, ALL new windows, glass block windows in basement, some light fixtures, new tub surround, bathroom vanity. Freshly painted inside and out including basement. You have heard it before but this is no joke, this home will not last long. Showings and negotiations begin immediately.

6. 2023-12-27
   status Pending 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Pack your bags and move right in! This 4 bedroom/1.5 bath, recently renovated house located within minutes of EVERYTHING has much to offer. Some of the great features include enclosed front porch, finished attic (2 bonus rooms)with new subfloor, full dry basement, large fully-fenced yard and off street parking. Renovations include, but are not limited to, complete tear-off roof, additional bath(half), 6-ft fence, plumbing, hot water tank, electric panels and meter, ALL new windows, glass block windows in basement, some light fixtures, new tub surround, bathroom vanity. Freshly painted inside and out including basement. You have heard it before but this is no joke, this home will not last long. Showings and negotiations begin immediately.

7. 2023-12-14
   status Pending Sale 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Pack your bags and move right in! This 4 bedroom/1.5 bath, recently renovated house located within minutes of EVERYTHING has much to offer. Some of the great features include enclosed front porch, finished attic (2 bonus rooms)with new subfloor, full dry basement, large fully-fenced yard and off street parking. Renovations include, but are not limited to, complete tear-off roof, additional bath(half), 6-ft fence, plumbing, hot water tank, electric panels and meter, ALL new windows, glass block windows in basement, some light fixtures, new tub surround, bathroom vanity. Freshly painted inside and out including basement. You have heard it before but this is no joke, this home will not last long. Showings and negotiations begin immediately.

8. 2023-12-02
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Pack your bags and move right in! This 4 bedroom/1.5 bath, recently renovated house located within minutes of EVERYTHING has much to offer. Some of the great features include enclosed front porch, finished attic (2 bonus rooms)with new subfloor, full dry basement, large fully-fenced yard and off street parking. Renovations include, but are not limited to, complete tear-off roof, additional bath(half), 6-ft fence, plumbing, hot water tank, electric panels and meter, ALL new windows, glass block windows in basement, some light fixtures, new tub surround, bathroom vanity. Freshly painted inside and out including basement. You have heard it before but this is no joke, this home will not last long. Showings and negotiations begin immediately.

9. 2023-11-30
   price $139,900 747-char remark

   Show marketing remark (747 chars)

   Pack your bags and move right in! This 4 bedroom/1.5 bath, recently renovated house located within minutes of EVERYTHING has much to offer. Some of the great features include enclosed front porch, finished attic (2 bonus rooms)with new subfloor, full dry basement, large fully-fenced yard and off street parking. Renovations include, but are not limited to, complete tear-off roof, additional bath(half), 6-ft fence, plumbing, hot water tank, electric panels and meter, ALL new windows, glass block windows in basement, some light fixtures, new tub surround, bathroom vanity. Freshly painted inside and out including basement. You have heard it before but this is no joke, this home will not last long. Showings and negotiations begin immediately.

10. 2023-11-17
    listed $149,900 Active 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    Pack your bags and move right in! This 4 bedroom/1.5 bath, recently renovated house located within minutes of EVERYTHING has much to offer. Some of the great features include enclosed front porch, finished attic (2 bonus rooms)with new subfloor, full dry basement, large fully-fenced yard and off street parking. Renovations include, but are not limited to, complete tear-off roof, additional bath(half), 6-ft fence, plumbing, hot water tank, electric panels and meter, ALL new windows, glass block windows in basement, some light fixtures, new tub surround, bathroom vanity. Freshly painted inside and out including basement. You have heard it before but this is no joke, this home will not last long. Showings and negotiations begin immediately.

11. 2022-06-08
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $1,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-04 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $170,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-22 Sold (MLS) $155,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-12-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-12-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-12-02 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2023-11-30 Price Changed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-11-17 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $163 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.