2204 Shelby Dr · Melbourne, FL 32935

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 866 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1960 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 1-bath concrete block home in the Eau Gallie area of Melbourne. Long-term tenant-occupied property ready for updates and renovation. Roof replaced June 2022 and A/C replaced in 2020. Fenced yard. Built in 1960. Opportunity for investor, starter home, or downsizing buyer looking to customize. Centrally located with convenient access to shopping, dining, and major roadways.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 carport space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished (no included washer/dryer listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Croton Elementary School (math 59% / reading 54%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 488 students, 64% FRL); Lyndon B. Johnson Middle School (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 610 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 332 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $160k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.96%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-18,184
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,432
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32935

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,903/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,453

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2587 Pepper Ave Melbourne, FL	3.0	1.0	800	$1,575	$1.97	23d	1	0.69mi
2794 Rhonda Ln Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	996	$1,900	$1.91	23d	1	0.77mi
2659 Burns Ave Melbourne, FL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,850	$1.77	23d	1	0.78mi
848 Comanche Ave Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,950	$1.81	23d	1	0.78mi
2242 Flower Tree Cir Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,300	$1.48	23d	1	0.78mi
2910 Zephyr Ln Melbourne, FL	2.0	1.0	828	$1,700	$2.05	23d	1	0.82mi
109 San Juan Cir Melbourne, FL	2.0	1.0	955	$1,400	$1.47	21d	1	0.82mi
1225 N Wickham Rd #726 Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	859	$1,500	$1.75	21d	1	0.83mi
1688 Eisenhower Ave Melbourne, FL	3.0	1.5	988	$1,700	$1.72	23d	1	0.84mi
196 San Juan Cir Melbourne, FL	2.0	1.0	955	$1,400	$1.47	23d	1	0.86mi
2082 Foxwood Dr Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,600	$1.64	14d	1	0.92mi
1965 Barkley Ave Melbourne, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	23d	1	0.95mi
188 Berkshire Ln Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	19d	1	1.00mi
2414 Summerset Dr Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$1,450	$1.36	23d	1	1.01mi
177 Ulster Ln Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	890	$1,300	$1.46	23d	1	1.02mi
181 Ulster Ln Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	890	$1,400	$1.57	23d	1	1.02mi
254 Ulster Ln Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,600	$1.46	14d	1	1.04mi
2420 Central Park Dr Melbourne, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,099	$2.01	13d	11	1.05mi
280 Ulster Ln Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,600	$1.46	23d	1	1.05mi
189 Cambridge Ln Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,600	$1.46	23d	1	1.06mi
217 Bristol Ln Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	890	$1,395	$1.57	23d	1	1.08mi
2504 Bogey Ln Apt C Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,500	$1.50	23d	1	1.15mi
1252 Ridgewood Dr Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,785	$1.60	19d	1	1.16mi
820 N Wickham Rd Melbourne, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,385	$1.92	14d	8	1.23mi
653 Ridge Club Dr #27 Melbourne, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,550	$1.72	23d	1	1.44mi
2700 Croton Rd Melbourne, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,675	$1.93	14d	1	1.45mi
2848 Caribbean Isle Blvd Melbourne, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,654	$2.09	13d	13	1.47mi
500 N Wickham Rd Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,449	$1.45	14d	8	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-05-06
   status Active
4. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-04-28
   listed $160,000 Active
6. 1986-08-01
   soldstatus $43,000
7. 1984-11-01
   soldstatus $42,400
8. 1984-04-01
   soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,903
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$76
• After-tax cash flow: $2,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Melbourne

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Melbourne, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 178,420
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,965
• Household income: $64,588
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1747.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.48%
• Current HPI: 308.7443
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.53%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+310.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $160,000 SCMLS
• 1986-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,400 Public Records
• 1984-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,903 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.