8811 Turner Dr · Citronelle, AL 36522

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,718 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2011 10,715 sqft lot $116/sqft · at area comps Est $191k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming property offers a sweet front porch—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing with afternoon tea. Step inside to find stunning luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring that flows throughout the main living areas. The home features an open-concept layout, with a spacious living area that seamlessly connects to the kitchen. The kitchen overlooks the living space, making it ideal for entertaining, and includes a breakfast bar, stained wood cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in breakfast area. Enjoy additional living space with a bright sunroom—perfect for relaxing, a home office, or playroom. Both full bathrooms feature tub/shower combinations and single vanities, and there is also a convenient separate sink area for added functionality. Step outside to a covered back patio with string lighting—perfect for entertaining or unwinding in the evenings. The backyard is fully privacy fenced and includes a storage shed for added convenience.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Sunroom
• Covered back patio

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SUNROOM
• COVERED BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.2% in Citronelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#254 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,545
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 4.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8770 State St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-11%)	8mo	$249,000	$162	51
19245 5th St N	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-13%)	20mo	$179,900	$120	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $114,096
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $331,221
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36522

• Home prices YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8685 W Williams St Citronelle, AL	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,600	$0.93	13d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    This charming property offers a sweet front porch—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing with afternoon tea. Step inside to find stunning luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring that flows throughout the main living areas. The home features an open-concept layout, with a spacious living area that seamlessly connects to the kitchen. The kitchen overlooks the living space, making it ideal for entertaining, and includes a breakfast bar, stained wood cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in breakfast area. Enjoy additional living space with a bright sunroom—perfect for relaxing, a home office, or playroom. Both full bathrooms feature tub/shower combinations and single vanities, and there is also a convenient separate sink area for added functionality. Step outside to a covered back patio with string lighting—perfect for entertaining or unwinding in the evenings. The backyard is fully privacy fenced and includes a storage shed for added convenience.

18. 2026-05-05
    status Pending 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    This charming property offers a sweet front porch—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing with afternoon tea. Step inside to find stunning luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring that flows throughout the main living areas. The home features an open-concept layout, with a spacious living area that seamlessly connects to the kitchen. The kitchen overlooks the living space, making it ideal for entertaining, and includes a breakfast bar, stained wood cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in breakfast area. Enjoy additional living space with a bright sunroom—perfect for relaxing, a home office, or playroom. Both full bathrooms feature tub/shower combinations and single vanities, and there is also a convenient separate sink area for added functionality. Step outside to a covered back patio with string lighting—perfect for entertaining or unwinding in the evenings. The backyard is fully privacy fenced and includes a storage shed for added convenience.

19. 2026-03-20
    listed $199,000 Active 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    This charming property offers a sweet front porch—perfect for morning coffee or relaxing with afternoon tea. Step inside to find stunning luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring that flows throughout the main living areas. The home features an open-concept layout, with a spacious living area that seamlessly connects to the kitchen. The kitchen overlooks the living space, making it ideal for entertaining, and includes a breakfast bar, stained wood cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in breakfast area. Enjoy additional living space with a bright sunroom—perfect for relaxing, a home office, or playroom. Both full bathrooms feature tub/shower combinations and single vanities, and there is also a convenient separate sink area for added functionality. Step outside to a covered back patio with string lighting—perfect for entertaining or unwinding in the evenings. The backyard is fully privacy fenced and includes a storage shed for added convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$262/yr (+$22/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$566
• After-tax cash flow: $1,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Citronelle

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #17928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citronelle, AL
• City population: 6,892
• Population (ZIP): 6,892

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 18% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.55%
• Current HPI: 260.4914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-05 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-20 Listed $199,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $554 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.