628 Parral St · Brownsville, TX 78520

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1994 5,998 sqft lot $149/sqft · 67% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with fresh paint inside and out. Features tile flooring throughout, spacious living and dining areas and plenty of natural light. Large yard has mature trees offering a comfy space to share with your family. Home is conveniently located close to schools, restaurants and hospitals. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Large yard
• Natural light

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• LARGE YARD
• MATURE TREES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MOVE-IN READY
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Skinner El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 333 students, 99% FRL); Pace Early College H S (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 1,788 students, 92% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.96%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,548
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: 67.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 W Park Dr	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,091 (+1%)	23mo	$114,000	$104	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,382
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $41,790
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,921/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,349

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $239	-5% $193	+0% $148	+5% $103	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $87	+0% $148	+5% $209	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $229	-0.5pp $189	base $148	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1234 W Levee St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	1281	$1,500	$1.17	23d	1	0.71mi
600 Lakeside Blvd Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$950	$1.25	16d	2	1.04mi
219 E 3rd St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	46d	1	1.05mi
221 E 3rd St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,325	$1.56	46d	1	1.05mi
230 W Jefferson St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$795	$0.95	46d	1	1.09mi
34 W Hawthorne Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$1,400	$1.49	46d	1	1.32mi
35 Cenizo Brownsville, TX	2.0	3.5	1404	$2,500	$1.78	46d	1	1.34mi
401 Boca Chica Blvd Unit 505 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,200	$1.04	46d	1	1.35mi
634 E 6th St Apt 2 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	713	$1,000	$1.40	46d	1	1.37mi
234 Emerald Ln Lot 4 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	23d	1	1.44mi
234 Emerald Ln Lot 4 Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	16d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $160,000 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 305 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 304 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 303 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 302 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 300 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 299 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 296 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 295 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 294 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 288 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 287 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 286 DOM
18. 2025-08-17
    listed $160,000 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with fresh paint inside and out. Features tile flooring throughout, spacious living and dining areas and plenty of natural light. Large yard has mature trees offering a comfy space to share with your family. Home is conveniently located close to schools, restaurants and hospitals. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2007-12-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,007/yr (+$84/mo · 52.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,921
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$851
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $1,980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-17 Listed $160,000 RGVMLS
• 2007-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,921 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.