203 Chickadee Way · Saw Creek, PA 18302

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1991 0.44 ac lot $207/sqft · 31% above area Est $222k · 10% under $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IDEAL STARTER OR VACATION HOME! This 3bd/1.5 bath ranch on a corner lot has a BRAND NEW Roof installed in Nov 2025. Home has a partially finished basement w/ pellet stove, liv/dining room combo, rear deck and 1 car garage. Home SOLD AS-IS !

Key facts

• Pellet stove
• Rear deck
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• PELLET STOVE
• REAR DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $199k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.91%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,600
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -10.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4267 Wintergreen Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+5%)	18mo	$175,000	$174	67
5225 Pony Trail Way	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (+11%)	8mo	$134,000	$126	42
3641 Sequoia Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+15%)	8mo	$175,000	$159	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,625
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,814
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,288/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,812

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $199,000 Pending 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-03-13
   price $199,000 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   IDEAL STARTER OR VACATION HOME! This 3bd/1.5 bath ranch on a corner lot has a BRAND NEW Roof installed in Nov 2025. Home has a partially finished basement w/ pellet stove, liv/dining room combo, rear deck and 1 car garage. Home SOLD AS-IS !

7. 2026-01-04
   listed $209,000 Active 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   IDEAL STARTER OR VACATION HOME! This 3bd/1.5 bath ranch on a corner lot has a BRAND NEW Roof installed in Nov 2025. Home has a partially finished basement w/ pellet stove, liv/dining room combo, rear deck and 1 car garage. Home SOLD AS-IS !

8. 2004-11-23
   soldstatus $90,000
9. 1991-10-01
   soldstatus $90,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,288 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,288 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,288
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$243
• After-tax cash flow: $2,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+119.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $199,000 PMAR
• 2026-01-04 Listed $209,000 PMAR
• 2004-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1991-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,288 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.