5512 NE Minnow Ln · Elgin, OK 73538

$389,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · Land · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful new 4-bedroom, 2-bath house, approximately 2,155 sf, 3-car garage, newly developed country neighborhood -- half acre lot, Elgin School District, brick veneer exterior/stone with wooden porch post and accents, Open floor plan, gorgeous colors, Spacious bedrooms, Custom painted white maple wood cabinets with lots of special trim/built-ins and crown molding with while walls, black hardware and fixtures, Upgraded 3 cm quartz countertops, Stainless steel appliances including gas cookstove, dishwasher, refrigerator, vent hood, and drawer microwave, Gas log fireplace, Ceramic tiled floors (wood look), backsplashes, and shower walls with accent, Extra attic insulation, Low-E energy effici

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.5 acre (110 x 200); Property type: Residential

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3 covered spaces; 3-car garage with door opener and side-facing garage
• Security: Security system; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction; One level; Built by Hardwood Homes LLC
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered porch; Wood fencing; Spa/Hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Range hood; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Pantry; Window coverings; Gas fireplace; Therapeutic whirlpool
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (39.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (46.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (46.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 5.1% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#17 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Elgin (rural): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #38 of 270 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elgin Es (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 945 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Ms (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #49 of 345 statewide, top 15%, 791 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Hs (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #42 of 447 statewide, top 10%, 771 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,092 (46.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.63%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $144,966
• Equity at exit: $351,253

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $479,977
• Equity at exit: $757,490

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73538

• Home prices YoY: 22.9%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 15.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,848/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-1,058

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,411

Max offer price $236,736

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 Kensington Ln Elgin, OK	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1414	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,900 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $389,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$5,848
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$20,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin
• NCES district ID: 4010710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,900
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6432
• State rank: #38 of 270 in OK

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #5411

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 7,128
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,128
• Household income: $91,324
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 45.70%
• Current HPI: 245.4249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $389,900 LBRMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.