502 W State St · Rawlins, WY 82301

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1922 4,792 sqft lot Est $160k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large family room
• Rv parking
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• RV PARKING
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($359/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Rawlins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#31 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Carbon County School District #1 (town): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #35 of 41 in WY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 40 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carbon County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,420 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,616
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
503 W State St	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,315 (-4%)	16mo	$158,000	$120	73
314 W Maple St	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,392 (+1%)	0mo	$219,000	$157	68
309 W Spruce St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,415 (+3%)	9mo	$130,000	$92	60
213 11th	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+6%)	9mo	$169,800	$116	51
121 E Center	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,554 (+13%)	10mo	$145,000	$93	49
518 9th St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,332 (-3%)	11mo	$150,000	$113	48
923 W Pine St	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,532 (+11%)	2mo	$179,000	$117	46
222 11th St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,474 (+7%)	11mo	$169,000	$115	45
1017 N Jeffers Dr	0.59mi	3/1.8 (+1)	1,474 (+7%)	14mo	$229,900	$156	44
604 3rd St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,216 (-12%)	2mo	$215,000	$177	43
307 E Walnut St	0.73mi	3/1.8 (+1)	1,248 (-9%)	2mo	$82,500	$66	43
1001 N Jeffers Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,570 (+14%)	17mo	$161,000	$103	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-20,672
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-15,757
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82301

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $139,000 Active
17. 2025-10-17
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $762 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $848 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,070
• − Management: −$1,070
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$493
• After-tax cash flow: $852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carbon County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5601030
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,074
• Composite: 38.23/100
• National rank: #4248
• State rank: #35 of 41 in WY

Livability — Rawlins

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #7516

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rawlins, WY
• County: Carbon County · 8,180 people
• City population: 8,180
• Metro: Rock Springs, WY
• Population (ZIP): 8,180
• Household income: $62,841
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 163.0

Population outlook (Carbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,217 people
• By 2030: 14,977 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 14,430 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 14,381 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 14,566 · -4.3%
• By 2100: 13,729 · -9.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.1% · R 78.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.0pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+50.5 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.83%
• Current HPI: 139.787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rock Springs, WY
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $139,000 WMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $139,000 WMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · -22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.