1600 Baer Ave · Penn, PA 17331

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1990 4,800 sqft lot Est $76k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sold as is- Needs renovation/TLC.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1990

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking with space for 4 vehicles; Total of 4 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Central heating fuel
• Home design: Manufactured home; Above-grade finished area (estimated 924); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pilings foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Ramp to main level (accessibility feature)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level; Two full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,637 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• South Western SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #206 of 539 in PA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $75k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.65%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,768
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
902 Baer Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+12%)	17mo	$84,500	$82	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $18,494
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $61,658
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17331

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $909/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $491	-5% $470	+0% $449	+5% $428	+10% $406
Rent	-10% $354	-5% $401	+0% $449	+5% $496	+10% $544
Rate	-1.0pp $487	-0.5pp $468	base $449	+0.5pp $429	+1.0pp $410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1234 Baltimore St Unit 4 Hanover, PA	2.0	1.0	784	$475	$0.61	45d	1	0.79mi
807 W Alvin St Unit 835 Hanover, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	22d	1	0.92mi
807 W Alvin St Hanover, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$1,000	$1.60	14d	2	0.94mi
342 E Walnut St Unit 29 Hanover, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$945	$1.35	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 33-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$11/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$909
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,067
• After-tax cash flow: $4,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Western SD
• NCES district ID: 4222470
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $67,689
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #3456
• State rank: #206 of 539 in PA

Livability — Penn

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1637
• US rank: #22584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Parkville, PA
• County: York County · 278,806 people
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 56,443
• Household income: $79,488
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1076.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.48%
• Current HPI: 251.8974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+971.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $909 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.