1358 Sherman St · Watertown, NY 13601

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1942 9,000 sqft lot $178/sqft · 13% below area Est $230k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable cape cod is in an ideal part of town, close to schools and hospital and just a quick trip to Drum. The attached garage fits her full size SUV. The home boasts 3-4 beds and 1 bath. Two beds downstairs, 1 upstairs, and a possible 4th bed upstairs currently being used as an extra living room. All bedrooms and first floor living room are spacious. There's a huge fully fenced back yard as well. This serves as a perfect starter home or a cute place to downsize. Taxes are low, price is great, check it out today!

Key facts

• Close to hospital
• Close to schools
• Attached garage

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO HOSPITAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherman School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 320 students, 57% FRL); Case Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Watertown Senior High School (math 89% / reading 92%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,083 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,655 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,218
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -13.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1398 Cosgrove St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,116 (-0%)	5mo	$235,000	$211	87
1366 Washington St	0.07mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,107 (-1%)	5mo	$191,000	$173	83
131 Barben Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+7%)	5mo	$217,000	$180	70
316 Iroquois Ave W	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-4%)	8mo	$164,800	$153	69
250 Barben Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (-5%)	11mo	$205,000	$192	64
1115 Sherman St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (+6%)	10mo	$229,000	$193	62
1202 Sherman St	0.27mi	3/1.5	994 (-11%)	7mo	$215,000	$216	61
1147 Holcomb St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-7%)	12mo	$184,000	$177	58
1304 Sherman St	0.21mi	3/3.0	1,263 (+13%)	6mo	$235,000	$186	56
235 Ward St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+3%)	9mo	$210,000	$182	54
222 Barben Ave	0.26mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,223 (+9%)	15mo	$212,000	$173	53
232 Haley St	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,114 (-1%)	10mo	$210,000	$189	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-32,146
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,310
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,835/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,626

Max offer price $179,044

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-61	+0% $-118	+5% $-175	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-176	+0% $-118	+5% $-60	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-67	base $-118	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2240 Kristina Park Watertown, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1072	$1,615	$1.51	45d	5	0.36mi
720 Cadwell St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.5	1300	$995	$0.77	45d	1	1.00mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	1.04mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	45d	1	1.13mi
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	1.33mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	45d	1	1.43mi
911 State St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	45d	1	1.46mi
927 State St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   This adorable cape cod is in an ideal part of town, close to schools and hospital and just a quick trip to Drum. The attached garage fits her full size SUV. The home boasts 3-4 beds and 1 bath. Two beds downstairs, 1 upstairs, and a possible 4th bed upstairs currently being used as an extra living room. All bedrooms and first floor living room are spacious. There's a huge fully fenced back yard as well. This serves as a perfect starter home or a cute place to downsize. Taxes are low, price is great, check it out today!

2. 2026-05-04
   price $199,900 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   This adorable cape cod is in an ideal part of town, close to schools and hospital and just a quick trip to Drum. The attached garage fits her full size SUV. The home boasts 3-4 beds and 1 bath. Two beds downstairs, 1 upstairs, and a possible 4th bed upstairs currently being used as an extra living room. All bedrooms and first floor living room are spacious. There's a huge fully fenced back yard as well. This serves as a perfect starter home or a cute place to downsize. Taxes are low, price is great, check it out today!

3. 2026-04-26
   price $204,900 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   This adorable cape cod is in an ideal part of town, close to schools and hospital and just a quick trip to Drum. The attached garage fits her full size SUV. The home boasts 3-4 beds and 1 bath. Two beds downstairs, 1 upstairs, and a possible 4th bed upstairs currently being used as an extra living room. All bedrooms and first floor living room are spacious. There's a huge fully fenced back yard as well. This serves as a perfect starter home or a cute place to downsize. Taxes are low, price is great, check it out today!

4. 2026-03-31
   listed $209,900 Active 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   This adorable cape cod is in an ideal part of town, close to schools and hospital and just a quick trip to Drum. The attached garage fits her full size SUV. The home boasts 3-4 beds and 1 bath. Two beds downstairs, 1 upstairs, and a possible 4th bed upstairs currently being used as an extra living room. All bedrooms and first floor living room are spacious. There's a huge fully fenced back yard as well. This serves as a perfect starter home or a cute place to downsize. Taxes are low, price is great, check it out today!

5. 2026-02-11
   price $209,900
6. 2026-01-25
   listed $215,000 Active
7. 2025-06-03
   soldstatus $194,900
8. 2025-04-28
   soldstatus $194,900 Closed
9. 2025-03-28
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-03-21
    price $189,900
11. 2025-03-11
    price $194,000
12. 2025-03-05
    listed $199,000 Active
13. 2023-01-10
    soldstatus $174,000 Closed Sale or Rented
14. 2022-12-06
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
15. 2022-11-01
    listed $174,900 Active
16. 2020-10-20
    soldstatus $218,000
17. 2020-09-10
    soldstatus $108,000
18. 2020-08-27
    soldstatus $108,000
19. 2020-07-07
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,835 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,607 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$771/yr (+$64/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,835
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $-225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+81.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $204,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $209,900 CNYIS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $209,900 CNYIS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $215,000 CNYIS
• 2025-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $194,900 Public Records
• 2025-04-28 Sold (MLS) $194,900 CNYIS
• 2025-03-28 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $194,000 CNYIS
• 2025-03-05 Listed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2023-01-10 Sold (MLS) $174,000 CNYIS
• 2022-12-06 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2022-11-01 Listed $174,900 CNYIS
• 2020-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-27 Sold (MLS) $108,000 CNYIS
• 2020-07-07 Listed $110,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,835 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.