491 Mill Rd #30 · Carlsborg, WA 98382

$83,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 190 Days on market

Built 1985 $77/sqft · 48% below area Est $161k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1080 square feet. New Roof! Two cords of wood included. Fantastic location in Carlsborg. Quick walk to Sunny Farms store, Discovery Trail and much more. Carlsborg Mobile Estates is 55+. Park rent is $560, includes water, sewer & trash.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Close to sunny farms
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• NEWER VINYL THERMAL WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SHARED COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLOSE TO SUNNY FARMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 2.4% in Carlsborg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#493 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Sequim School District (town): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #64 of 291 in WA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 605 active listings in the ZIP; 166 units permitted in Clallam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clallam County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $83k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $73,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.24%
• DSCR: 4.13
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,647
• List price: $83,000
• Delta: -48.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
491 Mill Rd #36	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	11mo	$65,000	$56	80
491 Mill Rd #4	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,116 (+3%)	13mo	$74,950	$67	78
400 Gupster Rd #5	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,148 (+6%)	11mo	$109,500	$95	44
330 Gupster Rd #39	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,142 (+6%)	18mo	$115,000	$101	42
30 Marjory	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (+14%)	6mo	$196,000	$160	42
400 Gupster Rd #7	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-11%)	9mo	$71,000	$74	37
400 Gupster Rd	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-11%)	9mo	$71,000	$74	37
101 Joslin Rd #8	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-11%)	4mo	$40,000	$42	35
330 Gupster Rd #29	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	933 (-14%)	17mo	$109,000	$117	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $73,191
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.54×
• Total profit: $175,289
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98382

• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $491/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $1,360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $647

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,407	-5% $1,384	+0% $1,360	+5% $1,337	+10% $1,313
Rent	-10% $1,173	-5% $1,267	+0% $1,360	+5% $1,454	+10% $1,547
Rate	-1.0pp $1,402	-0.5pp $1,381	base $1,360	+0.5pp $1,339	+1.0pp $1,317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $83,000 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $83,000 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $83,000 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $83,000 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $83,000 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $83,000 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $83,000 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,950 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,950 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,950 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,950 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,950 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,950 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,950 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,950 Active 171 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,950 Active 170 DOM
17. 2026-04-04
    price $89,950
18. 2026-02-09
    price $94,950
19. 2025-12-11
    listed $99,950 Active
20. 2023-02-13
    soldstatus $45,000 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1080 square feet. New Roof! Two cords of wood included. Fantastic location in Carlsborg. Quick walk to Sunny Farms store, Discovery Trail and much more. Carlsborg Mobile Estates is 55+. Park rent is $560, includes water, sewer & trash.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $491 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $813 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 65.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$491
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,274
• − Management: −$2,274
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $15,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,817
• After-tax cash flow: $12,507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sequim School District
• NCES district ID: 5307830
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,969
• Composite: 52.77/100
• National rank: #3312
• State rank: #64 of 291 in WA

Livability — Carlsborg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #20503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsborg, WA
• County: Clallam County · 31,052 people
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,052
• Household income: $74,189
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Clallam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,817 people
• By 2030: 78,177 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 79,795 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 80,890 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 83,933 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 82,141 · +6.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clallam

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 52.6% · R 44.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+3.4 2016: R+1.6 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.89%
• Current HPI: 181.4372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $89,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $94,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Listed $99,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-13 Sold (MLS) $45,000 OLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $491 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.