613 W German St · Herkimer, NY 13350

$162,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1920 2,970 sqft lot Est $174k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Village home featuring 4 bedrooms, a full bath, open living - dining area and spacious kitchen. Home has vinyl siding, replacement windows, a high efficiency heat system and an updated electric entrance. Its ready for you to move in. Enjoy the open front porch and the enclosed back porch gives access to the small back yard.

Key facts

• Open living room
• New white kitchen
• Dining room combo

Tags

• NEW WHITE KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM COMBO
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WALK-UP ATTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-459/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D+, crime D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $163k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $156,143 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
613 W German St	0.00mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (0%)	1mo	$172,670	$123	94
302 W German St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,318 (-6%)	2mo	$195,000	$148	77
810 Bellinger Ave	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,499 (+7%)	2mo	$174,000	$116	75
111 E German St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,456 (+4%)	3mo	$190,000	$130	70
305 3rd Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,380 (-1%)	6mo	$106,000	$77	68
318 Gray St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,316 (-6%)	11mo	$145,500	$111	54
415 N Prospect St	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,608 (+15%)	2mo	$103,000	$64	50
401 Harter St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+9%)	5mo	$193,000	$127	48
316 Dewey Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (+4%)	10mo	$40,000	$28	45
334 Gray St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,536 (+10%)	10mo	$201,400	$131	43
317 S Bellinger St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,216 (-13%)	5mo	$171,720	$141	42
310 Steuben St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-15%)	9mo	$148,000	$124	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $86,398
• Equity at exit: $146,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $256,571
• Equity at exit: $316,479

Cash invested: $45,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$854
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,217/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,612

Max offer price $156,143

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,725
• Closing costs: $4,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	44d	1	0.81mi
5 Walnut St Mohawk, NY	2.0	1.0	1832	$1,350	$0.74	44d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   listed $162,900 Active
3. 2022-04-21
   soldstatus $106,000 Closed Sale or Rented 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Village home featuring 4 bedrooms, a full bath, open living - dining area and spacious kitchen. Home has vinyl siding, replacement windows, a high efficiency heat system and an updated electric entrance. Its ready for you to move in. Enjoy the open front porch and the enclosed back porch gives access to the small back yard.

4. 2022-04-21
   soldstatus $106,000

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Village home featuring 4 bedrooms, a full bath, open living - dining area and spacious kitchen. Home has vinyl siding, replacement windows, a high efficiency heat system and an updated electric entrance. Its ready for you to move in. Enjoy the open front porch and the enclosed back porch gives access to the small back yard.

5. 2022-02-27
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Village home featuring 4 bedrooms, a full bath, open living - dining area and spacious kitchen. Home has vinyl siding, replacement windows, a high efficiency heat system and an updated electric entrance. Its ready for you to move in. Enjoy the open front porch and the enclosed back porch gives access to the small back yard.

6. 2022-02-01
   listed $104,900 Active 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Village home featuring 4 bedrooms, a full bath, open living - dining area and spacious kitchen. Home has vinyl siding, replacement windows, a high efficiency heat system and an updated electric entrance. Its ready for you to move in. Enjoy the open front porch and the enclosed back porch gives access to the small back yard.

7. 2021-11-17
   soldstatus $245,000
8. 2012-08-07
   soldstatus $56,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,217 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,217 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,125
• − Property taxes: −$4,217
• − Insurance: −$814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$4,739
• Taxable loss: −$3,133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$752
• After-tax cash flow: $293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — Herkimer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6787

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+188.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $162,900 CNYIS
• 2022-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-21 Sold (MLS) $106,000 CNYIS
• 2022-02-27 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2022-02-01 Listed $104,900 CNYIS
• 2021-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,217 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.