12420 Seaboard Dr · Palmetto, FL 34221

$410,340

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,086 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $133/sqft · 24% below area Est $540k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One of the largest plans in this collection, this two-story home has an abundance of space with six bedrooms to offer restful retreats for the whole family. Off the foyer is a versatile flex space, followed by a modern free-flowing design to add a sense of unity amid the open kitchen, dining room and family room. The second floor is host to the sprawling owner's suite and a large loft for shared entertainment.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $382k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Palmetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,344/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $334,430 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,205
• List price: $410,340
• Delta: -24.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4110 70th Street Cir E	1.08mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,962 (-4%)	11mo	$435,000	$147	44
8656 40th Cir E	1.44mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,909 (-6%)	10mo	$415,000	$143	40
4413 Stargazer Ct	1.46mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,934 (-5%)	23mo	$449,990	$153	33
3268 Osteen Cv	1.17mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,544 (-18%)	8mo	$440,072	$173	28
4403 Dusky Dawn Ln	1.48mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (-16%)	11mo	$409,990	$157	26
6334 Flagstone Trl	1.43mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (-16%)	19mo	$424,990	$163	19
6411 Flagstone Trl	1.43mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (-16%)	21mo	$419,990	$161	17
6404 Flagstone Trl	1.44mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (-16%)	21mo	$409,990	$157	17
6431 Flagstone Trl	1.46mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (-16%)	22mo	$441,990	$170	16
6119 Flagstone Trl	1.44mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (-16%)	23mo	$413,990	$159	16
6123 Flagstone Trl	1.44mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (-16%)	24mo	$413,990	$159	15
5915 Flagstone Trl	1.49mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (-16%)	24mo	$409,990	$157	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-88,584
• Equity at exit: $61,183

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-130,701
• Equity at exit: $35,479

Cash invested: $114,895 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active
• Median asking: $367,740 ($139/sqft)
• Median days on market: 39 d
• This list price: 80% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +25.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,152
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$513 /mo · $6,155/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$702
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,590

Max offer price $382,301

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $-52	+0% $-194	+5% $-336	+10% $-477
Rent	-10% $-458	-5% $-326	+0% $-194	+5% $-62	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-89	base $-194	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,585
• Closing costs: $12,310
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6011 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,400	$1.02	30d	1	0.02mi
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,825	$1.27	32d	1	0.02mi
8518 41st Ave E Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3086	$3,216	$1.04	35d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $423,540

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family homeActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 12420 Seaboard Dr, Palmetto, FL 34221

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Richmond planLiving area of 3086

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $410,340 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $410,340 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $409,840 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $409,840 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $409,840 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $409,840 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $409,840 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $409,840 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $409,840 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $409,840 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $409,840 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $409,840 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $409,840 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $409,140 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $409,040 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $407,940 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $407,940 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    price $406,840 Active 46 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $406,740 Active 46 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $406,740 Active 45 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    price $406,740 Active 44 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $406,640 Active 44 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $406,540 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $406,540 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $426,440 Active 40 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    price $426,440 Active 39 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $426,340 Active 39 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $426,340 Active 38 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $426,340 Active 36 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $426,340 Active 35 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $426,340 Active 34 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $426,340 Active 33 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    price $426,340 Active 32 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $426,140 Active 32 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $426,140 Active 31 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $426,140 Active 30 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $426,040 Active 29 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    pricedays on market $426,040 Active 27 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $425,940 Active 25 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $425,940 Active 24 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $425,940 Active 21 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $425,940 Active 20 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $425,940 Active 19 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $425,840 Active 18 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $425,840 Active 16 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $425,840 Active 15 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $425,840 Active 13 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $425,840 Active 12 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $425,840 Active 11 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,640 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,985
• − Property taxes: −$6,155
• − Insurance: −$2,052
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,211
• − Management: −$3,211
• − Depreciation: −$11,937
• Taxable loss: −$9,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,261
• After-tax cash flow: $-65/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and ample space. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting ↑
• Resale Upgrading light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's aesthetic and energy efficiency ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $423,540

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family homeActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 12420 Seaboard Dr, Palmetto, FL 34221

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Richmond planLiving area of 3086