14447 W Lee Shore Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1984 8,049 sqft lot $103/sqft · 42% above area Est $106k · 42% over $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case # 493-799284 Quaint & cozy best describes this charming home on lush lot with established landscaping & tall pines. Open concept bright & sunny interior with high ceilings. Fireplace in living area, French doors to back deck, split bedrooms, master bathroom has a soaking tub + separate stall shower! No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

Key facts

• Hardwood floor
• Updated electrical
• Double lot

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• DOUBLE LOT
• STONE FIREPLACE
• HARDWOOD FLOOR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Conroe Bay Civic Association (annual fee); Association fee $261 annually

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Cement siding; Block foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1984
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Porch; Deck; Storage; Shed(s); Back yard fence; Property has views; Located on a cul-de-sac; Lot mostly cleared; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (12x15); Two additional bedrooms on first floor (each 9x14)
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Vanity; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $693 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.80%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,924
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 41.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,543
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $44,306
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,647/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $778	-5% $736	+0% $693	+5% $651	+10% $608
Rent	-10% $523	-5% $608	+0% $693	+5% $778	+10% $863
Rate	-1.0pp $769	-0.5pp $731	base $693	+0.5pp $654	+1.0pp $615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	0d	1	0.27mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	1.02mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	1.02mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	5d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $150,000 Active 447-char remark
16. 2020-04-26
    historical
17. 2020-03-22
    listed $149,000 Active
18. 2019-12-12
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case # 493-799284 Quaint & cozy best describes this charming home on lush lot with established landscaping & tall pines. Open concept bright & sunny interior with high ceilings. Fireplace in living area, French doors to back deck, split bedrooms, master bathroom has a soaking tub + separate stall shower! No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

19. 2019-12-04
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case # 493-799284 Quaint & cozy best describes this charming home on lush lot with established landscaping & tall pines. Open concept bright & sunny interior with high ceilings. Fireplace in living area, French doors to back deck, split bedrooms, master bathroom has a soaking tub + separate stall shower! No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

20. 2019-11-25
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case # 493-799284 Quaint & cozy best describes this charming home on lush lot with established landscaping & tall pines. Open concept bright & sunny interior with high ceilings. Fireplace in living area, French doors to back deck, split bedrooms, master bathroom has a soaking tub + separate stall shower! No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

21. 2019-11-20
    price $63,000

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case # 493-799284 Quaint & cozy best describes this charming home on lush lot with established landscaping & tall pines. Open concept bright & sunny interior with high ceilings. Fireplace in living area, French doors to back deck, split bedrooms, master bathroom has a soaking tub + separate stall shower! No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

22. 2019-10-04
    listed $70,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case # 493-799284 Quaint & cozy best describes this charming home on lush lot with established landscaping & tall pines. Open concept bright & sunny interior with high ceilings. Fireplace in living area, French doors to back deck, split bedrooms, master bathroom has a soaking tub + separate stall shower! No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

23. 2011-05-12
    historical
24. 2010-10-14
    listed $69,000
25. 2005-03-29
    soldstatus
26. 2001-10-01
    historical
27. 2000-07-23
    listed $57,500
28. 1998-11-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,098/yr (+$91/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,647
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $6,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,508
• After-tax cash flow: $6,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+160.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2020-04-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-03-22 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2019-12-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-12-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-20 Price Changed $63,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-04 Listed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2011-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-10-14 Listed $69,000 HARMLS
• 2005-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2000-07-23 Listed $57,500 HARMLS
• 1998-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,647 · -9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.