16430 SW 17th Ter · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$297,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,134 sqft · Land · 167 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot $140/sqft · at area comps Est $299k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. The Majestic is a spacious floorplan offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a study/den, and a 2 car garage. The split plan provides a welcoming master with plenty of privacy from the other four bedrooms. The open concept kitchen and great room allow plenty of space for family gatherings. The kitchen features a stainless steel electric smooth top range, accompanied by a stainless steel microwave complete with a ductless vent hood, light and fan. Additionally, we offer a one year Limited non-transferable Mechanical Warranty. In fact, you’re covered inside and out with the protection of a 10-year Limited Struct

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $298k implies a 1319% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,373 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.72%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,147
• List price: $297,990
• Delta: -0.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-79,730
• Equity at exit: $44,431

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-125,716
• Equity at exit: $25,765

Cash invested: $83,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,470/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,607

Max offer price $240,487

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-191	-5% $-294	+0% $-397	+5% $-500	+10% $-603
Rent	-10% $-564	-5% $-480	+0% $-397	+5% $-314	+10% $-231
Rate	-1.0pp $-247	-0.5pp $-322	base $-397	+0.5pp $-475	+1.0pp $-553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,498
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16390 SW 17th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,825	$1.16	14d	1	0.10mi
1663 SW 167th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	14d	1	0.20mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	14d	1	0.34mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	22d	1	0.40mi
1631 SW 160th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,795	$1.11	14d	1	0.49mi
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	22d	1	0.58mi
16846 SW 22nd Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	14d	1	0.63mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	0.65mi
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	22d	1	0.80mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	22d	1	0.87mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.87mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	0.88mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	22d	1	0.89mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	14d	1	0.93mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	22d	1	1.01mi
2240 SW 156th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,600	$1.02	22d	1	1.11mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	14d	1	1.15mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	14d	1	1.15mi
15353 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	14d	1	1.16mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	22d	1	1.26mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,699	$1.08	22d	1	1.26mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	14d	1	1.26mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.27mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	14d	1	1.28mi
17490 SW 27th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	14d	1	1.32mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	14d	1	1.33mi
2705 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,745	$1.10	22d	1	1.39mi
3022 SW 168th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,800	$1.22	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   Under Construction. The Majestic is a spacious floorplan offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a study/den, and a 2 car garage. The split plan provides a welcoming master with plenty of privacy from the other four bedrooms. The open concept kitchen and great room allow plenty of space for family gatherings. The kitchen features a stainless steel electric smooth top range, accompanied by a stainless steel microwave complete with a ductless vent hood, light and fan. Additionally, we offer a one year Limited non-transferable Mechanical Warranty. In fact, you’re covered inside and out with the protection of a 10-year Limited Struct

2. 2026-03-13
   price $297,990 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   Under Construction. The Majestic is a spacious floorplan offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a study/den, and a 2 car garage. The split plan provides a welcoming master with plenty of privacy from the other four bedrooms. The open concept kitchen and great room allow plenty of space for family gatherings. The kitchen features a stainless steel electric smooth top range, accompanied by a stainless steel microwave complete with a ductless vent hood, light and fan. Additionally, we offer a one year Limited non-transferable Mechanical Warranty. In fact, you’re covered inside and out with the protection of a 10-year Limited Struct

3. 2026-02-27
   price $304,990 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   Under Construction. The Majestic is a spacious floorplan offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a study/den, and a 2 car garage. The split plan provides a welcoming master with plenty of privacy from the other four bedrooms. The open concept kitchen and great room allow plenty of space for family gatherings. The kitchen features a stainless steel electric smooth top range, accompanied by a stainless steel microwave complete with a ductless vent hood, light and fan. Additionally, we offer a one year Limited non-transferable Mechanical Warranty. In fact, you’re covered inside and out with the protection of a 10-year Limited Struct

4. 2025-12-11
   price $319,990 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   Under Construction. The Majestic is a spacious floorplan offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a study/den, and a 2 car garage. The split plan provides a welcoming master with plenty of privacy from the other four bedrooms. The open concept kitchen and great room allow plenty of space for family gatherings. The kitchen features a stainless steel electric smooth top range, accompanied by a stainless steel microwave complete with a ductless vent hood, light and fan. Additionally, we offer a one year Limited non-transferable Mechanical Warranty. In fact, you’re covered inside and out with the protection of a 10-year Limited Struct

5. 2025-12-02
   listed $324,990 Active 642-char remark

   Show marketing remark (642 chars)

   Under Construction. The Majestic is a spacious floorplan offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a study/den, and a 2 car garage. The split plan provides a welcoming master with plenty of privacy from the other four bedrooms. The open concept kitchen and great room allow plenty of space for family gatherings. The kitchen features a stainless steel electric smooth top range, accompanied by a stainless steel microwave complete with a ductless vent hood, light and fan. Additionally, we offer a one year Limited non-transferable Mechanical Warranty. In fact, you’re covered inside and out with the protection of a 10-year Limited Struct

6. 2005-11-04
   soldstatus $21,000
7. 2005-11-04
   soldstatus $42,000
8. 2004-07-06
   soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,692
• − Property taxes: −$4,470
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,020
• − Management: −$2,020
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$10,115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,428
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3624.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $297,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $304,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $319,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Listed $324,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $427 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.