822 E Fannin St · Goliad, TX 77963

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1984 7,492 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a piece of Texas history with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home in the heart of Goliad, TX. Recently updated with fresh renovations and updated flooring throughout, this home offers a comfortable and move-in-ready space. The covered front deck overlooks the open yard. Inside the home, you’ll find a functional and inviting layout with two comfortable bedrooms and a full bath. Recent renovations provide a refreshed feel, while the updated flooring adds a clean, modern touch throughout the living spaces. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity, this property offers flexibility. Goliad is known as the birthplace of Texas ranching and one of the most historically significant communities in the state. Just minutes away, Goliad State Park and Historic Site invites residents and visitors alike to explore centuries of Texas heritage. Walk the scenic trails along the San Antonio River, visit the beautifully restored Mission Espíritu Santo, or spend the day kayaking, fishing, and enjoying the peaceful natural surroundings. Living here means having daily access to one of Texas’ most unique and culturally rich state parks. History lovers will appreciate being near Presidio La Bahía and the many landmarks that played a role in Texas’ fight for independence. The charming downtown area reflects the town’s deep roots, with local shops, community events, and a welcoming small-town atmosphere that makes Goliad such a special place to call home. Another major highlight is the home’s convenient access to the Texas Gulf Coast. In just about an hour’s drive, you can be enjoying the beaches of Port Aransas, Rockport, or Corpus Christi—perfect for fishing trips, beach days, and coastal getaways whenever the mood strikes. If you’re looking for convenient living in a town rich with Texas heritage, natural beauty, and easy access to the coast, this Goliad home is an opportunity you won’t want to miss.

Key facts

• Texas gulf coast
• Covered front deck
• Updated flooring

Tags

• COVERED FRONT DECK
• UPDATED FLOORING
• TEXAS GULF COAST

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($960 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 2.1% in Goliad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#348 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Goliad ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #370 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Goliad County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Goliad County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.55%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $16,873
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $47,890
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77963

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $447

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $420	+0% $405	+5% $389	+10% $374
Rent	-10% $329	-5% $367	+0% $405	+5% $443	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $433	-0.5pp $419	base $405	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $55,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-03-07
    listed $60,000 Active 2058-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2058 chars)

    Step into a piece of Texas history with this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home in the heart of Goliad, TX. Recently updated with fresh renovations and updated flooring throughout, this home offers a comfortable and move-in-ready space. The covered front deck overlooks the open yard. Inside the home, you’ll find a functional and inviting layout with two comfortable bedrooms and a full bath. Recent renovations provide a refreshed feel, while the updated flooring adds a clean, modern touch throughout the living spaces. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity, this property offers flexibility. Goliad is known as the birthplace of Texas ranching and one of the most historically significant communities in the state. Just minutes away, Goliad State Park and Historic Site invites residents and visitors alike to explore centuries of Texas heritage. Walk the scenic trails along the San Antonio River, visit the beautifully restored Mission Espíritu Santo, or spend the day kayaking, fishing, and enjoying the peaceful natural surroundings. Living here means having daily access to one of Texas’ most unique and culturally rich state parks. History lovers will appreciate being near Presidio La Bahía and the many landmarks that played a role in Texas’ fight for independence. The charming downtown area reflects the town’s deep roots, with local shops, community events, and a welcoming small-town atmosphere that makes Goliad such a special place to call home. Another major highlight is the home’s convenient access to the Texas Gulf Coast. In just about an hour’s drive, you can be enjoying the beaches of Port Aransas, Rockport, or Corpus Christi—perfect for fishing trips, beach days, and coastal getaways whenever the mood strikes. If you’re looking for convenient living in a town rich with Texas heritage, natural beauty, and easy access to the coast, this Goliad home is an opportunity you won’t want to miss.

19. 2025-06-21
    historical
20. 2025-05-06
    price $54,500
21. 2025-01-19
    price $55,000
22. 2025-01-18
    price $55
23. 2024-11-17
    listed $89,900 Active
24. 2024-06-24
    historical
25. 2024-06-23
    listed $65,000 Active
26. 2024-03-12
    historical
27. 2024-02-01
    listed $65,000 Active
28. 2023-08-30
    soldstatus
29. 2023-08-08
    status Pending
30. 2023-06-04
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$505/yr (+$42/mo · 100.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$921
• − Management: −$921
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,012
• After-tax cash flow: $3,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goliad ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821030
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,198
• Composite: 35.12/100
• National rank: #5015
• State rank: #370 of 826 in TX

Livability — Goliad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #7645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goliad, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,109

Population outlook (Goliad County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,337 people
• By 2030: 8,754 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 9,581 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 10,448 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 12,946 · +55.3%
• By 2100: 14,392 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 17% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Goliad

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.5% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.7pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+33.8 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.59%
• Current HPI: 185.8947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+50.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Listed $60,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-21 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $54,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-19 Price Changed $55,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $55 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-17 Listed $89,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-23 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-12 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $65,000 CTXMLS
• 2023-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-08 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2023-06-04 Listed $39,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $501 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.