425 Sophee Ln · Toms River, NJ 08701

$164,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 889 sqft · Condo public records · 265 Days on market

Built 2006 $185/sqft · 11% below area Est $186k · 11% under $403/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Covington Village a premier upscale 55+ condo community. Ocean County best kept secret! This condo features 1 bedroom 1 Bath, freshly painted. 42'' kitchen cabinets, granite countertops and stainless appliances. Easy access to Washer Dryer off kitchen. Hardwood in Foyer, Dining , hallway and kitchen. Spacious tiled Shower Stall in bathroom. Walk in Closet in Master Bedroom. Ample storage space, Covered balcony backing to wood. State of the Art Clubhouse featuring gorgeous heated pool, Fitness room, Billiards, Banquet room ,movie theater and library!! Close to major highways and shopping

Key facts

• Hardwood in foyer
• Stainless appliances
• Walk in closet

Tags

• UPSCALE CONDO COMMUNITY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• HARDWOOD IN FOYER
• SPACIOUS TILED SHOWER STALL
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.19%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,943
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -11.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,648
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,099
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,085 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,256/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$403
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,930

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $169	+0% $123	+5% $76	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $40	+0% $123	+5% $205	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $164	base $123	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 Deer Path Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0–1.5	1187	$2,575	$2.17	2d	4	0.52mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	44d	1	0.66mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	2d	1	0.94mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	25d	1	1.14mi
106A Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	18d	1	1.15mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	19d	1	1.25mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	22d	1	1.26mi
2144 Lakewood Rd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	7d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $403 · $4,836/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 259 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 248 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 247 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $164,900 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome to Covington Village a premier upscale 55+ condo community. Ocean County best kept secret! This condo features 1 bedroom 1 Bath, freshly painted. 42'' kitchen cabinets, granite countertops and stainless appliances. Easy access to Washer Dryer off kitchen. Hardwood in Foyer, Dining , hallway and kitchen. Spacious tiled Shower Stall in bathroom. Walk in Closet in Master Bedroom. Ample storage space, Covered balcony backing to wood. State of the Art Clubhouse featuring gorgeous heated pool, Fitness room, Billiards, Banquet room ,movie theater and library!! Close to major highways and shopping

16. 2026-03-31
    price $174,900 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome to Covington Village a premier upscale 55+ condo community. Ocean County best kept secret! This condo features 1 bedroom 1 Bath, freshly painted. 42'' kitchen cabinets, granite countertops and stainless appliances. Easy access to Washer Dryer off kitchen. Hardwood in Foyer, Dining , hallway and kitchen. Spacious tiled Shower Stall in bathroom. Walk in Closet in Master Bedroom. Ample storage space, Covered balcony backing to wood. State of the Art Clubhouse featuring gorgeous heated pool, Fitness room, Billiards, Banquet room ,movie theater and library!! Close to major highways and shopping

17. 2026-01-20
    price $179,900 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome to Covington Village a premier upscale 55+ condo community. Ocean County best kept secret! This condo features 1 bedroom 1 Bath, freshly painted. 42'' kitchen cabinets, granite countertops and stainless appliances. Easy access to Washer Dryer off kitchen. Hardwood in Foyer, Dining , hallway and kitchen. Spacious tiled Shower Stall in bathroom. Walk in Closet in Master Bedroom. Ample storage space, Covered balcony backing to wood. State of the Art Clubhouse featuring gorgeous heated pool, Fitness room, Billiards, Banquet room ,movie theater and library!! Close to major highways and shopping

18. 2026-01-20
    status Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome to Covington Village a premier upscale 55+ condo community. Ocean County best kept secret! This condo features 1 bedroom 1 Bath, freshly painted. 42'' kitchen cabinets, granite countertops and stainless appliances. Easy access to Washer Dryer off kitchen. Hardwood in Foyer, Dining , hallway and kitchen. Spacious tiled Shower Stall in bathroom. Walk in Closet in Master Bedroom. Ample storage space, Covered balcony backing to wood. State of the Art Clubhouse featuring gorgeous heated pool, Fitness room, Billiards, Banquet room ,movie theater and library!! Close to major highways and shopping

19. 2026-01-06
    status Pending 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome to Covington Village a premier upscale 55+ condo community. Ocean County best kept secret! This condo features 1 bedroom 1 Bath, freshly painted. 42'' kitchen cabinets, granite countertops and stainless appliances. Easy access to Washer Dryer off kitchen. Hardwood in Foyer, Dining , hallway and kitchen. Spacious tiled Shower Stall in bathroom. Walk in Closet in Master Bedroom. Ample storage space, Covered balcony backing to wood. State of the Art Clubhouse featuring gorgeous heated pool, Fitness room, Billiards, Banquet room ,movie theater and library!! Close to major highways and shopping

20. 2025-09-12
    listed $184,900 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Welcome to Covington Village a premier upscale 55+ condo community. Ocean County best kept secret! This condo features 1 bedroom 1 Bath, freshly painted. 42'' kitchen cabinets, granite countertops and stainless appliances. Easy access to Washer Dryer off kitchen. Hardwood in Foyer, Dining , hallway and kitchen. Spacious tiled Shower Stall in bathroom. Walk in Closet in Master Bedroom. Ample storage space, Covered balcony backing to wood. State of the Art Clubhouse featuring gorgeous heated pool, Fitness room, Billiards, Banquet room ,movie theater and library!! Close to major highways and shopping

21. 2008-04-04
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,256 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,181 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: +$925/yr (+$77/mo · 41.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,256
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,001
• − Management: −$2,001
• − HOA: −$4,836
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$225
• After-tax cash flow: $1,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+9.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $164,900 MOMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $174,900 MOMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $179,900 MOMLS
• 2026-01-20 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-01-06 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $184,900 MOMLS
• 2008-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,256 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.