315 N 3rd St · Nederland, TX 77627

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1962 0.32 ac lot Est $197k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity in the highly-sought Nederland ISD! Spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home + an additional 50 x 140 lot. Front porch wooden deck. Split bedroom floor plan. Large primary bedroom with full bath and walk-in closet. Indoor utility room. Spacious patio area overlooking the backyard. Zoned for Highland Park Elementary and Central Middle School. SELLER WILLING TO CONSIDER ALL OFFERS!

Key facts

• Spacious patio area
• Indoor utility room
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• FRONT PORCH WOODEN DECK
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• INDOOR UTILITY ROOM
• SPACIOUS PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Public maintained road; Storage structure on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.6% in Nederland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $180k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,215 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
522 Boston Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+6%)	12mo	$299,900	$180	71
211 S 5 1/2 St	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,425 (-9%)	11mo	$265,000	$186	60
116 S 4th 1/2 St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-13%)	14mo	$169,900	$126	54
412 S 4th 1/2 St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-12%)	3mo	$164,900	$121	54
2113 2nd St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+6%)	6mo	$135,000	$81	53
2234 6th St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+3%)	13mo	$179,900	$112	50
204 S 2 1/2 St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,406 (-10%)	19mo	$192,500	$137	49
307 S 3rd St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-12%)	18mo	$160,000	$117	44
623 S 8th St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-11%)	10mo	$178,500	$129	42
2233 5th St	0.69mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,606 (+3%)	16mo	$189,900	$118	41
603 S 2nd St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,752 (+12%)	15mo	$190,000	$108	41
708 S 5th 1/2 St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+15%)	13mo	$279,900	$157	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,938
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $52,206
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77627

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,461

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 Nederland Ave Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,890	$1.39	13d	1	0.21mi
304 Avenue E Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,900	$1.26	13d	1	0.47mi
1815 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,750	$1.40	23d	1	1.23mi
1619 Avenue G Unit G Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	23d	1	1.32mi
1107 S 16th St Unit 1 Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	1395	$1,250	$0.90	13d	1	1.33mi
2125 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	1.44mi
2125 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.44mi
2125 Avenue A Unit A Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,600	$1.36	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $180,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $190,000 Active
18. 2025-10-31
    price $195,000
19. 2025-09-17
    listed $200,000 Active
20. 2009-09-28
    soldstatus $89,280

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,674/yr (+$140/mo · 103.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$115
• After-tax cash flow: $2,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nederland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832280
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,647
• Composite: 44.95/100
• National rank: #2709
• State rank: #138 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nederland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #3906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nederland, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 22,357
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,357
• Household income: $78,001
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.91%
• Current HPI: 176.2132
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+112.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $190,000 BBOR
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $195,000 BBOR
• 2025-09-17 Listed $200,000 BBOR
• 2009-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $89,280 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2020): $1,620 · -35.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.