306 Mill St · Lone Oak, TX 75453

$250,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,308 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2005 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Half duplex (the other half is also for sale) currently leased.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Treat as clear loan type
• Financial info: Gross annual income approximately $27,540; Gross annual expenses approximately $3,200; Insurance expense approximately $2,000; Net operating income approximately $22,340; Capitalization rate about 8.94%; Tenancy terms: over 9 months
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking; 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Co-op electric; Individual water meter
• Home design: Residential income property (duplex); Single building with 2 units; Occupancy currently 100%
• Construction: Built in 2005; Wood construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt surfaces; City water; City sewer; Co-op electric service; Individual water meter

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable TV available; One-level layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $117/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.2% in Lone Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,438 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lone Oak El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $151,149
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.19×
• Total profit: $433,586
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75453

• Home prices YoY: 25.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,859/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,304

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 86%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$2,600
Total (2 units)			$2,600

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $250,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-04
    listed $250,000 Active 374-char remark
14. 2025-02-06
    historical $1,095
15. 2025-01-05
    listed $1,095
16. 2025-01-01
    historical $1,185
17. 2024-10-17
    listed $1,185
18. 2023-03-06
    soldstatus Closed 63-char remark

    Show marketing remark (63 chars)

    Half duplex (the other half is also for sale) currently leased.

19. 2022-12-17
    status Pending 63-char remark

    Show marketing remark (63 chars)

    Half duplex (the other half is also for sale) currently leased.

20. 2022-12-10
    listed $110,000 Active 63-char remark

    Show marketing remark (63 chars)

    Half duplex (the other half is also for sale) currently leased.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,859 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,859 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,859
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$283
• After-tax cash flow: $3,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lone Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828020
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,628
• Composite: 36.72/100
• National rank: #4593
• State rank: #310 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lone Oak

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1438
• US rank: #24556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lone Oak, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,832

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 255.6167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-06 Rental Removed $1,095 NTREIS
• 2025-01-05 Listed for Rent $1,095 NTREIS
• 2025-01-01 Rental Removed $1,185 NTREIS
• 2024-10-17 Listed for Rent $1,185 NTREIS
• 2023-03-06 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-12-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-12-10 Listed $110,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,859 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.