4925 Bay View Cir · Stockton, CA 95219

$600,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 2002 5,201 sqft lot $225/sqft · 17% below area Est $721k · 17% under $180/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful two-story 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom single-family home offering timeless curb appeal and modern functionality, located within a prestigious gated community with scenic river surroundings. The low-maintenance front and backyard are designed for easy care, while a welcoming covered front porch, 2-car attached garage, private backyard patio, and second-floor deck provide perfect spaces for relaxing and entertaining. Step inside to a bright, open-concept layout highlighted by a grand foyer, soaring ceilings, wood floors, fresh paint, and a cozy fireplace. The well-appointed kitchen features a center island, abundant natural light, and a gas stove—ideal for everyday living and entertaining guests. The spacious primary suite offers its own private balcony, creating a serene retreat, and is complemented by additional light-filled bedrooms with generous space. Enjoy the tranquility of a quiet, tree-lined neighborhood. Move-in ready and meticulously maintained, this home delivers comfort, privacy, and effortless living in an exceptional setting.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Covered front porch
• Second-floor deck

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SCENIC RIVER SURROUNDINGS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE BACKYARD PATIO
• SECOND-FLOOR DECK
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (45.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (47.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (47.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brookside (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #257 of 1,571 statewide, top 17%, 731 students, 37% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lincoln Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $433k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $316,158 (47.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.06%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $721,071
• List price: $600,000
• Delta: -16.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4958 Bay View Cir	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,668 (0%)	1mo	$635,000	$238	97
4817 Bridgewater Cir	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,702 (+1%)	5mo	$1,000,000	$370	80
4829 Bridgewater Cir	0.22mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,970 (+11%)	12mo	$995,000	$335	56
5162 Poppy Hills Cir	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,670 (+0%)	14mo	$850,000	$318	52
3970 Glen Abby Cir	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,753 (+3%)	14mo	$950,000	$345	50
5854 Riverbank Cir	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,553 (-4%)	9mo	$598,000	$234	49
3611 Longcove Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,443 (-8%)	19mo	$788,000	$323	48
4067 Pine Lake Cir	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,379 (-11%)	17mo	$680,000	$286	47
5717 Saint Andrews Dr	0.74mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,857 (+7%)	4mo	$875,000	$306	44
4840 Longcove Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,288 (-14%)	9mo	$645,500	$282	40
5126 Spanish Bay Cir	0.66mi	4/3.0	3,022 (+13%)	10mo	$930,000	$308	39
3441 Gleneagles Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,039 (+14%)	20mo	$1,010,000	$332	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $231,840
• Equity at exit: $540,528

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $768,226
• Equity at exit: $1,165,668

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,642/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $-1,549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,122

Max offer price $326,368

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,209	-5% $-1,379	+0% $-1,549	+5% $-1,719	+10% $-1,889
Rent	-10% $-1,799	-5% $-1,674	+0% $-1,549	+5% $-1,424	+10% $-1,299
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,247	-0.5pp $-1,396	base $-1,549	+0.5pp $-1,704	+1.0pp $-1,863

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5956 Saint Andrews Dr Stockton, CA	4.0	2.5	3345	$3,300	$0.99	45d	1	0.52mi
3906 Brook Valley Cir Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,100	$1.28	45d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: gassecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $600,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $600,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $600,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $600,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $600,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $600,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $600,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    price $600,000 1064-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

    Beautiful two-story 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom single-family home offering timeless curb appeal and modern functionality, located within a prestigious gated community with scenic river surroundings. The low-maintenance front and backyard are designed for easy care, while a welcoming covered front porch, 2-car attached garage, private backyard patio, and second-floor deck provide perfect spaces for relaxing and entertaining. Step inside to a bright, open-concept layout highlighted by a grand foyer, soaring ceilings, wood floors, fresh paint, and a cozy fireplace. The well-appointed kitchen features a center island, abundant natural light, and a gas stove—ideal for everyday living and entertaining guests. The spacious primary suite offers its own private balcony, creating a serene retreat, and is complemented by additional light-filled bedrooms with generous space. Enjoy the tranquility of a quiet, tree-lined neighborhood. Move-in ready and meticulously maintained, this home delivers comfort, privacy, and effortless living in an exceptional setting.

17. 2026-02-20
    price $525,000 1064-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

    Beautiful two-story 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom single-family home offering timeless curb appeal and modern functionality, located within a prestigious gated community with scenic river surroundings. The low-maintenance front and backyard are designed for easy care, while a welcoming covered front porch, 2-car attached garage, private backyard patio, and second-floor deck provide perfect spaces for relaxing and entertaining. Step inside to a bright, open-concept layout highlighted by a grand foyer, soaring ceilings, wood floors, fresh paint, and a cozy fireplace. The well-appointed kitchen features a center island, abundant natural light, and a gas stove—ideal for everyday living and entertaining guests. The spacious primary suite offers its own private balcony, creating a serene retreat, and is complemented by additional light-filled bedrooms with generous space. Enjoy the tranquility of a quiet, tree-lined neighborhood. Move-in ready and meticulously maintained, this home delivers comfort, privacy, and effortless living in an exceptional setting.

18. 2026-02-04
    listed $580,000 Active 1064-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1064 chars)

    Beautiful two-story 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom single-family home offering timeless curb appeal and modern functionality, located within a prestigious gated community with scenic river surroundings. The low-maintenance front and backyard are designed for easy care, while a welcoming covered front porch, 2-car attached garage, private backyard patio, and second-floor deck provide perfect spaces for relaxing and entertaining. Step inside to a bright, open-concept layout highlighted by a grand foyer, soaring ceilings, wood floors, fresh paint, and a cozy fireplace. The well-appointed kitchen features a center island, abundant natural light, and a gas stove—ideal for everyday living and entertaining guests. The spacious primary suite offers its own private balcony, creating a serene retreat, and is complemented by additional light-filled bedrooms with generous space. Enjoy the tranquility of a quiet, tree-lined neighborhood. Move-in ready and meticulously maintained, this home delivers comfort, privacy, and effortless living in an exceptional setting.

19. 2018-08-13
    soldstatus $433,000
20. 2003-10-20
    soldstatus $395,000
21. 2002-08-27
    soldstatus $299,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,642 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,642 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$5,642
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,035
• − Management: −$3,035
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$29,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+100.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $600,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $525,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-04 Listed $580,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $433,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $299,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,642 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.