5233 Cates Ave · St. Louis, MO 63108

$29,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1898 3,101 sqft lot $16/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in St. Louis City! This 2-story home offers approximately 1,912 livable square feet, featuring 6 rooms, including 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Property is a full rehab project and is not move-in ready—perfect for investors or buyers looking to customize a home to their vision. Features include a fenced backyard and strong potential for value-add improvements. Bring your ideas and finishing touches to transform this property. Property is being sold as-is. Buyer to verify all information, including school district, square footage, and any permits required to complete renovations.

Key facts

• 3,101 sq ft lot
• Built 1898
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 62.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 62.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 201.69%
• DSCR: 9.97
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,073
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -67.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4969 Fountain Ave	0.50mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+7%)	20mo	$250,000	$123	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.15×
• Total profit: $85,002
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.74×
• Total profit: $190,347
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63108

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $269/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $1,407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $243

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1320 Academy Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,090	$0.68	43d	1	0.44mi
5096 Minerva Ave Unit C St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1800	$1,395	$0.78	43d	1	0.44mi
5137 Waterman Blvd Apt 4 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	23d	1	0.50mi
5137 Waterman Blvd Apt 4 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	43d	1	0.50mi
5527 Waterman Blvd St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1389	$1,495	$1.08	16d	1	0.63mi
625 N Euclid Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	984	$3,120	$3.17	1d	16	0.64mi
275 Union Blvd St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–3.0	1317	$3,426	$2.60	1d	58	0.64mi
321 Belt Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1549	$2,300	$1.48	4d	1	0.65mi
5345 Wells Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2254	$1,295	$0.57	43d	1	0.66mi
4901 Washington Blvd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,500	$1.54	11d	1	0.66mi
5394 Pershing Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,595	$1.73	43d	1	0.69mi
401 N Euclid Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,615	$1.58	1d	4	0.74mi
4738 Olive St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1413	$1,925	$1.36	23d	1	0.77mi
232 Kingshighway Blvd St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.5	1240	$4,200	$3.39	43d	1	0.85mi
5804 Cates Ave Unit 2 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	4d	1	0.85mi
5333 Patton Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1262	$1,250	$0.99	43d	1	0.87mi
100 N Kingshighway Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	1211	$5,531	$4.57	43d	84	0.98mi
100 N Kingshighway Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$5,438	$4.64	1d	80	0.98mi
5783 McPherson Ave Unit 1FL St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,950	$1.56	7d	1	0.98mi
5783 McPherson Ave Unit 2FL St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,550	$1.93	7d	1	0.98mi
40 N Kingshighway Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$2,195	$2.52	43d	54	1.03mi
40 N Kingshighway Blvd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$2,545	$2.96	1d	54	1.03mi
4615 Lindell Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,075	$1.66	7d	6	1.04mi
4605 Lindell Blvd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0–3.0	1868	$2,398	$1.28	7d	3	1.06mi
10 S Kingshighway Blvd St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	2178	$2,500	$1.15	17d	1	1.07mi
4466 Olive St Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1222	$2,495	$2.04	1d	7	1.08mi
4567 W Pine Blvd Saint Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1326	$2,575	$1.94	1d	7	1.11mi
5803 Waterman Blvd St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1432	$1,850	$1.29	43d	1	1.12mi
4446 McPherson Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1440	$2,100	$1.46	23d	1	1.13mi
5861 Nina Pl Unit 3W St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	17d	1	1.15mi
5861 Nina Pl Apt 2W St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	43d	1	1.15mi
4909 Laclede Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1405	$3,800	$2.70	4d	1	1.16mi
4909 Laclede Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1405	$3,800	$2.70	3d	1	1.16mi
4400 Delmar Blvd St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	1.20mi
5920 McPherson Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,550	$1.96	43d	1	1.22mi
5760 Theodosia Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1702	$1,420	$0.83	23d	1	1.22mi
6009 Kingsbury Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1368	$2,000	$1.46	3d	1	1.29mi
6009 Kingsbury Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1368	$1,300	$0.95	23d	1	1.29mi
4535 Forest Park Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,645	$2.60	2d	15	1.30mi
6017 Kingsbury Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1600	$2,700	$1.69	17d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $29,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    listed $29,900 Active 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Great opportunity in St. Louis City! This 2-story home offers approximately 1,912 livable square feet, featuring 6 rooms, including 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Property is a full rehab project and is not move-in ready—perfect for investors or buyers looking to customize a home to their vision. Features include a fenced backyard and strong potential for value-add improvements. Bring your ideas and finishing touches to transform this property. Property is being sold as-is. Buyer to verify all information, including school district, square footage, and any permits required to complete renovations.

15. 2025-11-18
    price $45,000
16. 2025-11-03
    price $49,900
17. 2025-11-03
    price $45,000
18. 2025-10-03
    price $49,900
19. 2025-10-03
    status Active
20. 2025-09-05
    price $59,900
21. 2025-08-04
    price $69,900
22. 2025-07-02
    listed $79,900 Active
23. 2025-04-02
    listed $249,900 Active
24. 2020-01-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $269 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $290 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$21/yr (+$2/mo · 7.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$269
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $17,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,185
• After-tax cash flow: $12,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 21,336
• Household income: $55,147
• Rent vs Own: 73.3% rent · 26.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2180.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 26% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.22%
• Current HPI: 225.1081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-88.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Listed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Listed $249,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $269 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.