Oakridge Plan · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$229,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily · 318 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $229,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $238,567.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,130 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,567
• List price: $229,990
• Delta: -3.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25292 Leather Leaf Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	1mo	$232,990	$183	95
25316 Leather Leaf Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	2mo	$232,990	$183	94
25304 Leather Leaf Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	4mo	$234,990	$185	92
25248 Leather Leaf Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-3%)	2mo	$220,000	$178	86
25247 Leather Leaf Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+7%)	1mo	$225,000	$165	78
25429 Carnation Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	5mo	$239,990	$170	78
25259 Leather Leaf Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+9%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	76
25296 Leather Leaf Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	2mo	$239,990	$170	76
25284 Leather Leaf Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	2mo	$241,990	$172	76
25288 Leather Leaf Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	3mo	$245,990	$173	74
25307 Leather Leaf Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	4mo	$239,990	$170	73
25303 Leather Leaf Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	4mo	$243,990	$172	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-50,429
• Equity at exit: $35,571

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-71,962
• Equity at exit: $20,627

Cash invested: $66,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,251
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$298 /mo · $3,579/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,087

Max offer price $223,061

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,642
• Closing costs: $7,157
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25553 Blossom Ct Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,690	$1.35	3d	1	0.02mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,990 Active 318 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,990 Active 317 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,990 Active 316 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,990 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,990 Active 313 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,990 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,990 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,990 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,990 Active 304 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,990 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,990 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,990 Active 301 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,990 Active 300 DOM
14. 2025-08-04
    listed $229,990 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

15. 2025-06-04
    listed $229,990 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,579
• − Insurance: −$1,193
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$6,940
• Taxable loss: −$5,406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,297
• After-tax cash flow: $12/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-04 Listed $229,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Listed $229,990 Zillow