157 Bates Ave · St. Paul, MN 55106

$350,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1915 6,141 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT MOUNDS PARK HOME ON QUIET STREET. MOTHER-IN-LAW APT. ON LOWER LEVEL- BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED LOT. SUNROOM /4 SEASON PORCH, WHIRLPOOL BATH. EASY ACCESS TO FREEWAYS AND DOWNTOWN.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Outdoor trex balcony
• Main floor sun room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE ISLAND WITH STORAGE
• MAIN FLOOR SUN ROOM
• OUTDOOR TREX BALCONY
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway; Electric in parking area; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric; Electric and natural gas fuel sources
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Walkout basement with daylight/lookout and egress windows; Balcony and porch
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Block foundation; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Built with finished below-grade area
• Exterior features: Stucco and wood exterior; Rear porch and side porch; No fencing; Medium tree coverage; City street frontage, public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen with breakfast area and dining room access
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Bedroom on upper level (multiple); Bedroom on lower level; 3 bedrooms on one level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water boiler with baseboard heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Hardwood floors; Tile floors; Paneled doors; Kitchen window; Walk-up attic; Balcony; Patio; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: American Indian Magnet School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #800 of 857 statewide, top 95%, 524 students, 88% FRL); Battle Creek Middle (math 4% / reading 14%, grade F, #252 of 258 statewide, top 98%, 693 students, 85% FRL); Harding Senior High (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #424 of 471 statewide, top 90%, 1,717 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 64% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Paul Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,177/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2046% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; list at $350k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $317,666 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-35,636
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $29,483
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55106

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,177 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,396/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,972

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $261	+0% $162	+5% $63	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $36	+0% $162	+5% $287	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $338	-0.5pp $251	base $162	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $-21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
180 E Kellogg Blvd St Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1436	$4,595	$3.20	0d	21	1.12mi
333 Sibley St Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1358	$3,269	$2.41	12d	10	1.15mi
111 Kellogg Blvd E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,783	$2.78	4d	20	1.28mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $350,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $350,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,396 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,396 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,396
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,050
• − Management: −$3,050
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$3,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$939
• After-tax cash flow: $2,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 56,708
• Household income: $70,187
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2046.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 34% White 32% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 27% Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -239.48%
• Current HPI: 288.7205
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.26%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-02 Sold (MLS) $220,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-13 Listed $224,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,396 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.