109-07 153rd St · New York, NY 11433

$313,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2006 1,396 sqft lot Est $612k · 49% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

attached colonial, with private driveway and garage , newer construction.

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Newer construction
• 1,396 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• NEWER CONSTRUCTION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached private parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Utilities listed as none
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported as 1018
• Construction: Brick and frame construction
• Exterior features: Brick and frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater (appliance noted)
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Steam heating; Other heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,073/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1701% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,317 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.78%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $611,818
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11405 Inwood St	0.48mi	2/2.5	968 (-5%)	0mo	$700,000	$723	67
11003 164th Pl	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (-3%)	5mo	$595,000	$601	61
14537 Linden Blvd	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+4%)	6mo	$660,000	$625	61
16427 109th Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	998 (-2%)	5mo	$577,000	$578	61
110-04 164th St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	963 (-5%)	0mo	$497,222	$516	60
11467 145th St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+8%)	3mo	$640,000	$582	52
11434 145th St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+10%)	6mo	$670,000	$598	47
138-49 102 Avenue N 138-49 102	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+8%)	7mo	$600,000	$545	47
141-18 Lakewood Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (+13%)	5mo	$685,000	$597	47
150-16 115th Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	882 (-13%)	5mo	$540,000	$612	44
11429 146th St	0.50mi	3/3.0 (+1)	896 (-12%)	4mo	$675,000	$753	44
11458 145th St	0.60mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,120 (+10%)	7mo	$737,000	$658	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-37,342
• Equity at exit: $46,744

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-14,970
• Equity at exit: $27,106

Cash invested: $87,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11433

• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,644
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,519/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,807

Max offer price $313,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,375
• Closing costs: $9,405
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108-46 153rd St Unit 1FL Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$2,900	$3.22	24d	1	0.04mi
15307 Arlington Ter Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.5	1470	$3,800	$2.59	24d	1	0.10mi
106-12 156th St Unit 2nd Fl Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1208	$3,499	$2.90	24d	1	0.35mi
139-18 Lakewood Ave Unit 2F Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1258	$3,250	$2.58	24d	1	0.57mi
139-22 Lakewood Ave Unit 2F Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1008	$3,250	$3.22	24d	1	0.61mi
15053 115th Dr Jamaica, NY	2.0	1.0	1264	$2,997	$2.37	7d	1	0.62mi
11649 147th St Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1280	$3,600	$2.81	7d	1	0.79mi
103-20 168th Pl Unit 2nd floor Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,900	$2.90	24d	1	0.80mi
105-17 170th St Unit 1 Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	850	$3,200	$3.76	24d	1	0.82mi
15501 90th Ave Unit 3R Jamaica, NY	1.0	1.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	24d	1	0.93mi
89-15 Parsons Blvd Unit W6B Jamaica, NY	1.0	1.0	725	$2,100	$2.90	19d	1	0.96mi
119-15A 145th St Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.5	1248	$3,800	$3.04	19d	1	0.98mi
10940 175th St Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$4,000	$3.08	19d	1	1.00mi
10473 129th St South Richmond Hill, NY	1.0	1.0	1280	$2,500	$1.95	24d	1	1.00mi
10469 129th St South Richmond Hill, NY	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,400	$2.66	24d	1	1.00mi
88-56 162nd St Apt 2D Jamaica, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	24d	1	1.03mi
144-07 Jamaica Ave Unit 3rd Floor Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	800	$2,750	$3.44	24d	1	1.04mi
148-37 88th Ave Queens, NY	2.0	2.0	900	$3,500	$3.89	24d	1	1.08mi
88-33 144th St Unit 2nd Fl Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,600	$2.36	3d	1	1.09mi
90-48 171st St Jamaica, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	24d	1	1.16mi
120-23 Guy R Brewer Blvd Unit 1 Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$3,250	$2.71	19d	1	1.19mi
17218 Jamaica Ave Unit 501 Jamaica, NY	2.0	2.0	939	$3,300	$3.51	24d	1	1.19mi
14832 87th Ave Jamaica, NY	2.0	1.0	768	$2,800	$3.65	19d	1	1.23mi
148-16 87th Ave Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$2,300	$3.29	17d	1	1.23mi
11529 126th St South Ozone Park, NY	2.0	1.5	940	$3,058	$3.25	15d	1	1.28mi
17203 119th Ave Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	1090	$3,300	$3.03	24d	1	1.29mi
120-06 172nd St Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	2.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	24d	1	1.37mi
13532 Kew Gardens Rd Richmond Hill, NY	2.0	1.0	1070	$2,500	$2.34	24d	1	1.38mi
123-08 95th Ave Unit 2 South Richmond Hill, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,400	$2.40	24d	1	1.40mi
12169 133rd St South Ozone Park, NY	3.0	1.0	1020	$3,500	$3.43	24d	1	1.40mi
8712 175th St Unit 6B Jamaica, NY	2.0	2.0	876	$3,000	$3.42	24d	1	1.41mi
90-32 179th St Unit 2nd fl Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,000	$2.50	24d	1	1.41mi
87-13 135th St Unit 3 Jamaica, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$2,850	$2.04	24d	1	1.47mi
17545 88th Ave Unit 6F Jamaica, NY	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,950	$2.41	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $313,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $313,500 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $313,500 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $313,500 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 73-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $313,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,519 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,909 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: +$389/yr (+$32/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,561
• − Property taxes: −$4,519
• − Insurance: −$2,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,950
• − Management: −$2,950
• − Depreciation: −$9,120
• Taxable loss: −$2,588
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$621
• After-tax cash flow: $3,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 37,884
• Household income: $77,519
• Rent vs Own: 52.6% rent · 47.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1701.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Asian 17% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% White 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 42% · Canada, China, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Other Indo-European 13% Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.63%
• Current HPI: 383.7055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $313,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-02 Listed $313,200 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $313,200 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-11 Listed $348,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,519 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.