17 John St · Oswego, NY 13126

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1870 10,098 sqft lot Est $135k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has a new roof , carpet and paint. Enjoy the convenience of this great location, Walk to everYthing

Key facts

• Three car driveway
• Fenced in back yard
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• THREE CAR DRIVEWAY
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• MOMENTS FROM DOWNTOWN OSWEGO
• NEW FLOORS IN LAUNDRY ROOM
• NEW FLOORS IN BATHROOM
• NEW FLOORS IN DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $189k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,808
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 W 7th St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-3%)	0mo	$225,000	$141	76
114 W Schuyler St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-10%)	3mo	$50,000	$34	67
121 W Oneida St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,706 (+4%)	5mo	$129,900	$76	65
136 W Seneca St	0.15mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,825 (+11%)	6mo	$132,000	$72	65
41 W 4th St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,750 (+6%)	7mo	$189,000	$108	58
42 W Mohawk St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,701 (+4%)	7mo	$120,000	$71	56
70 W 7th St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,420 (-14%)	6mo	$116,000	$82	56
62 Third Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,665 (+1%)	6mo	$247,000	$148	55
8 Sunrise Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-4%)	8mo	$245,000	$155	54
37 SW 9th St	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-10%)	1mo	$167,000	$113	50
216 W 4th St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+8%)	2mo	$134,900	$76	46
221 W 7th St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,398 (-15%)	6mo	$70,000	$50	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $17,969
• Equity at exit: $34,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $112,632
• Equity at exit: $27,460

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,556/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,518

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $599	-5% $546	+0% $492	+5% $439	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $323	-5% $408	+0% $492	+5% $577	+10% $661
Rate	-1.0pp $587	-0.5pp $540	base $492	+0.5pp $443	+1.0pp $393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
164 W Schuyler St Unit A Oswego, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,755	$1.25	14d	1	0.05mi
148 W Seneca St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	14d	1	0.10mi
85 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	14d	1	0.12mi
161 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,240	$1.60	14d	1	0.15mi
141 W Cayuga St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.0	1311	$2,100	$1.60	14d	1	0.15mi
153 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$2,340	$1.30	14d	1	0.16mi
138 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,300	$1.15	14d	1	0.18mi
136 W Cayuga St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,300	$1.44	14d	1	0.19mi
144 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,400	$1.20	14d	1	0.21mi
6 Lathrop St Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,725	$1.57	14d	1	0.23mi
130 W Bridge St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,500	$1.47	14d	1	0.26mi
9 Lathrop St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	14d	1	0.27mi
23 NW 9th St Oswego, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$2,300	$1.35	14d	1	0.27mi
103 W 8th St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	14d	1	0.29mi
143 Liberty St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,480	$1.46	14d	1	0.32mi
105 W Oneida St Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,540	$1.41	14d	1	0.38mi
39 W 6th St Unit 2-A Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,725	$1.15	14d	1	0.39mi
135 W Mohawk St Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1103	$1,700	$1.54	14d	1	0.40mi
120 Sheldon Ave Unit A Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,480	$1.18	14d	1	0.62mi
25 W Mohawk St Unit TH Oswego, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,745	$1.52	44d	1	0.70mi
4 Murray St Oswego, NY	4.0	2.0	1589	$1,800	$1.13	14d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   status Active
3. 2026-02-27
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-13
   listed $189,000 Active
5. 2025-05-14
   status Pending
6. 2025-05-07
   listed $159,900 Active
7. 2016-06-23
   historical 110-char remark

   Show marketing remark (110 chars)

   This home has a new roof , carpet and paint. Enjoy the convenience of this great location, Walk to everYthing

8. 2016-06-15
   soldstatus $56,000 110-char remark

   Show marketing remark (110 chars)

   This home has a new roof , carpet and paint. Enjoy the convenience of this great location, Walk to everYthing

9. 2016-04-13
   historical
10. 2016-04-12
    listed $64,500 110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (110 chars)

    This home has a new roof , carpet and paint. Enjoy the convenience of this great location, Walk to everYthing

11. 2016-01-08
    price $64,500
12. 2015-12-08
    listed $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,375 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$819/yr (+$68/mo · 52.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,556
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $2,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$720
• After-tax cash flow: $5,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oswego, NY
• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+193.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $189,000 CNYIS
• 2025-05-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2016-06-23 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2016-06-15 Sold (MLS) $56,000 CNYIS
• 2016-04-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2016-04-12 Listed $64,500 CNYIS
• 2016-01-08 Price Changed $64,500 WNYREIS
• 2015-12-08 Listed $64,500 CNYIS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,556 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.