20384 Mary Ball Rd · White Stone, VA 22578

$235,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1958 0.60 ac lot Est $235k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well-maintained 3-bedroom home featuring 1 full bath and 1 half bath, situated on a little over . 50 acres in White Stone. With 1,008 square feet of comfortable living space, this home offers a functional layout and a cozy, inviting feel throughout. Renovations were completed approximately 8 years ago, including the HVAC system, roof, hot water heater, and new flooring. The property is serviced by town water and private septic, and the driveway was redone just 2 years ago. High-speed internet access is available, making it ideal for both everyday living and remote work. Enjoy the outdoor setting with a gazebo, carport, and attached storage shed, along with plenty of space to re

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $235k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 0.9% in White Stone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#358 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lancaster County Public School District (rural): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #125 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lancaster Primary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #992 of 1,108 statewide, top 90%, 316 students, 127% FRL); Lancaster Middle (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #328 of 342 statewide, top 96%, 237 students, 99% FRL); Lancaster High (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #305 of 319 statewide, top 97%, 403 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 109% FRL vs 64% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $235k implies a 1075% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.51%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,864
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20384 Mary Ball Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$233	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,468
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $45,586
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22578

• Home prices YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $820/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,770

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $709	-5% $643	+0% $576	+5% $510	+10% $443
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $478	+0% $576	+5% $675	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $695	-0.5pp $636	base $576	+0.5pp $516	+1.0pp $454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
645 Rappahannock Dr White Stone, VA	3.0	1.0	1104	$2,500	$2.26	45d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $235,000 Active
3. 2012-12-17
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,108/yr (+$92/mo · 135.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$820
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $3,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$769
• After-tax cash flow: $6,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102160
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $48,210
• Composite: 32.58/100
• National rank: #5680
• State rank: #125 of 131 in VA

Livability — White Stone

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #14401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,346

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,870 people
• By 2030: 9,172 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 7,719 · -21.8%
• By 2050: 6,551 · -33.6%
• By 2075: 5,110 · -48.2%
• By 2100: 3,884 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.0) · D 46.1% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.9pp · 2024: -7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.0 2020: R+4.6 2016: R+10.0 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.07%
• Current HPI: 266.525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1075.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $820 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.