300 E 2nd Ave S · Cavalier, ND 58220

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Other · 5 Days on market

Built 1939 6,969 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Key facts

• Main floor laundry
• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 4 garage spots

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ATTACHED HEATED GARAGE
• DETACHED HEATED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#83 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Cavalier 6 (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #12 of 53 in ND (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cavalier Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #118 of 236 statewide, top 54%, 220 students, 26% FRL); Cavalier High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #9 of 144 statewide, top 8%, 192 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pembina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Pembina County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $205k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,371 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $50,237
• Equity at exit: $127,136

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $153,667
• Equity at exit: $229,072

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58220

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,547

Max offer price $184,969

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-55	+0% $-113	+5% $-171	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-169	+0% $-113	+5% $-58	+10% $-2
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-61	base $-113	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-03-28
   listed $205,000 Active
4. 2018-09-12
   soldstatus $90,000
5. 2005-12-07
   soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $742 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,267/yr (+$106/mo · 170.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,348
• − Management: −$1,348
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,216
• After-tax cash flow: $-145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cavalier 6
• NCES district ID: 3800018
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,577
• Composite: 42.29/100
• National rank: #3264
• State rank: #12 of 53 in ND

Livability — Cavalier

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #7850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cavalier, ND
• Population (ZIP): 2,215

Population outlook (Pembina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,414 people
• By 2030: 6,060 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 5,383 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 4,925 · -23.2%
• By 2075: 5,025 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 6,293 · -1.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 24% Lithuanian 8% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pembina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.3) · D 22.8% · R 76.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.3 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+49.2 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.87%
• Current HPI: 137.4829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+439.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listed $205,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $742 · -43.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.