4160 Black Rock Rd · Hampstead, MD 21074

$285,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1954 9,148 sqft lot $261/sqft · 14% below area Est $330k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming Cape Cod built in 1954, offers a perfect blend of classic design and modern comfort. With 2 cozy bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, the traditional floor plan invites you to unwind. The spacious living area features beautiful wood floors and a wood burning fireplace and pellet stove, perfect for those chilly evenings. The kitchen includes appliances such as a refrigerator, dishwasher, and microwave, along with a convenient pantry for all your culinary needs. Enjoy the ease of laundry with both a washer and dryer included. Step outside to a generous 0.21-acre lot, providing ample space for outdoor activities or gardening. The unfinished basement offers potential for a workshop or a

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1954

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Basement attached garage (1-car); Driveway parking for 2 cars; On-street parking; Total of 3 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; Well water; Electric service (cooling fuel and hot water); Oil heating
• Home design: Detached home; Stick-built construction; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Construction: Estimated year built; Stick built construction; Block foundation; Detached structure
• Exterior features: Basement with outside entrance and garage access; Unfinished basement with workshop; Detached structure; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; One bedroom on the upper level
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating (oil-fired); Ceiling fan cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Traditional floor plan; Pantry; Stove - pellet; Wood floors; Entry-level bedroom; Living room; Dining room; Den; Mud room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Hampstead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#137 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Carroll County Public Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #2 of 24 in MD (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 156 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $285k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,333 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.73%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,886
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -13.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4202 Black Rock Rd	0.04mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	2mo	$280,000	$278	84
1402 Burnside Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,076 (-2%)	1mo	$300,000	$279	72
913 Clearview Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,076 (-2%)	17mo	$339,900	$316	70
1335 West St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,080 (-1%)	10mo	$188,475	$175	66
4333 Sycamore Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,078 (-1%)	14mo	$329,000	$305	62
1315 Hillcrest St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-8%)	9mo	$339,000	$339	54
1003 Terrace Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,168 (+7%)	15mo	$380,000	$325	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-57,810
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-65,510
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21074

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,283/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,283

Max offer price $252,945

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
890 Gaming Sq Hampstead, MD	3.0	1.5	1232	$2,100	$1.70	16d	1	0.62mi
3820 Normandy Dr Unit 3A Hampstead, MD	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	2d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $285,000 Active 937-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   historical $285,000 937-char remark
3. 2003-12-29
   soldstatus $137,500
4. 1995-08-01
   soldstatus $93,000
5. 1995-03-03
   soldstatus $83,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,283 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,695 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$412/yr (+$34/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,283
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,744
• After-tax cash flow: $-434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400210
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $84,594
• Composite: 37.33/100
• National rank: #4441
• State rank: #2 of 24 in MD

Livability — Hampstead

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #5869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,070

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,677 people
• By 2030: 169,605 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 166,205 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 158,312 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 143,013 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 122,431 · -27.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.2% · R 61.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+23.7 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.99%
• Current HPI: 274.0553
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+242.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $83,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,283 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.