1358 Manuel Dr #146 · Hayward, CA 94544

$280,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 49 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition $259/sqft · 10% below area Est $310k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the mobile home you have been waiting for. Situated in a well maintained family park, this two bedroom two bath home is ready for you and your family. Totally remodeled to match your exquisite taste. The kitchen boasts granite countertops and tile floors with gas stove. This corner lot home is next to ample parking so your guests do not have to search for parking when visiting this very well maintained home. Easy access to freeway, shopping and schools.

Key facts

• Tile floors
• Ample parking
• Gas stove

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORS
• GAS STOVE
• CORNER LOT
• AMPLE PARKING
• EASY ACCESS TO FREEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,182
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -9.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28722 Miranda St #28722	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+2%)	9mo	$255,000	$232	83
29053 Westbourne	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (+12%)	19mo	$325,000	$269	43
29431 Middleborough Way	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	15mo	$205,000	$171	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-30,518
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-10,571
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94544

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $348	+0% $251	+5% $154	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $142	+0% $251	+5% $360	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $322	base $251	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1112 Jason Creek Pl Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	748	$2,700	$3.61	45d	1	0.21mi
28187 Karn Dr Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1335	$3,300	$2.47	6d	1	0.36mi
720 W Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	630	$2,805	$4.45	0d	1	0.55mi
27500 Tampa Ave Unit 85 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.5	950	$2,275	$2.39	16d	1	0.63mi
27942 Manon Ave Unit C Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	748	$2,150	$2.87	25d	1	0.77mi
27162 Tampa Ave #70 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	977	$2,550	$2.61	5d	1	0.80mi
34 Ballard Ct Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	45d	1	0.83mi
981 Cheryl Ann Cir #40 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$3,800	$3.05	45d	1	0.85mi
29189 Lassen St Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1180	$3,500	$2.97	45d	1	0.86mi
683 Shepherd Ave Unit D Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,450	$2.88	25d	1	0.90mi
637 Shepherd Ave Apt C Hayward, CA	2.0	1.5	780	$2,595	$3.33	45d	1	0.92mi
27427 Stoneridge Ct Hayward, CA	2.0	1.5	1008	$2,500	$2.48	45d	1	0.99mi
317 Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0	1050	$3,395	$3.23	14d	1	1.02mi
322 Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,100	$3.00	23d	1	1.04mi
27070 Manon Ave Unit 6A Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	45d	1	1.07mi
27090 Belvedere Ct Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	790	$2,200	$2.78	16d	1	1.10mi
27715 Cliffwood Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1128	$3,800	$3.37	45d	1	1.11mi
27033 Belvedere Ct Apt 8 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	25d	1	1.11mi
1234 McFarlane Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1311	$3,660	$2.79	14d	1	1.12mi
29163 Dixon St Hayward, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$2,995	$2.72	0d	5	1.15mi
29289 Dixon St Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,285	$2.31	25d	2	1.17mi
934 Schafer Rd Unit 940 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,450	$3.06	25d	1	1.20mi
28850 Dixon St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$3,406	$3.76	0d	9	1.25mi
655 Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$3,139	$3.66	0d	4	1.27mi
376 Line St Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,500	$2.72	0d	1	1.30mi
376 Line St Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,500	$2.72	3d	1	1.30mi
27463 Ponderosa Ct Hayward, CA	2.0	1.5	988	$2,790	$2.82	45d	1	1.31mi
29536 Dixon St Unit 10 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,995	$2.66	12d	1	1.31mi
29536 Dixon St Unit 3 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	700	$2,450	$3.50	25d	1	1.31mi
26525 Gading Rd Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,350	$2.47	45d	1	1.34mi
29213 Mission Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	748	$2,959	$3.96	6d	1	1.36mi
28168 Mission Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1196	$3,947	$3.30	0d	14	1.37mi
27475 Hesperian Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	618	$2,304	$3.73	0d	5	1.38mi
302 Dumont Ave Unit 1 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$2,400	$3.27	45d	1	1.41mi
302 Dumont Ave Unit 8 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$2,500	$3.40	45d	1	1.41mi
837 Hancock St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$3,188	$3.34	0d	14	1.45mi
2634 Oliver Dr Unit 2634 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$2,300	$2.60	45d	1	1.46mi
333 Dumont Ave Unit 1 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-09
   listed $280,000 Active 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   This is the mobile home you have been waiting for. Situated in a well maintained family park, this two bedroom two bath home is ready for you and your family. Totally remodeled to match your exquisite taste. The kitchen boasts granite countertops and tile floors with gas stove. This corner lot home is next to ample parking so your guests do not have to search for parking when visiting this very well maintained home. Easy access to freeway, shopping and schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,656
• − Management: −$2,656
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$1,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$369
• After-tax cash flow: $3,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is ready for a new owner. The kitchen and exterior are in good condition, with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both trim bushes — improves landscaping and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both trim bushes — improves landscaping and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 76,947
• Household income: $107,785
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2573.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 28% Two or more races 13% White 11% Black 7% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -907.12%
• Current HPI: 315.6082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.58%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $280,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR