822 Bogie · Venice, FL 34285

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 767 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1967 3,249 sqft lot $385/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the heart of Venice within a vibrant 55+ boating community, this beautifully landscaped residence offers the ultimate Florida resort lifestyle just a seven-minute boat ride from the Gulf of Mexico via the Intracoastal Waterway. The home has been meticulously updated with smooth insulated drywall throughout, a eight-year-old A/C, and a brand-new 2025 roof accented by stylish new Bahama shutters. Outside, the property features an incredible, ultra-durable 48-foot carport engineered to withstand 150 mph hurricane-force winds. This massive structure easily shelters three vehicles while doubling as a fantastic, shaded space for outdoor entertaining. Designed to maximize the coastal su

Key facts

• Brand new boat docks
• Meticulously updated
• New 2025 roof

Tags

• METICULOUSLY UPDATED
• NEW 2025 ROOF
• 48 FOOT CARPORT
• COVERED FRONT LANAI
• PANORAMIC WINDOWS
• BRAND NEW BOAT DOCKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Home is homesteaded
• Financial info: Total monthly fees noted at $385 (includes HOA and other fees); Total annual fees noted at $4,620; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $255; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, heated in-ground pool with spa, tennis/basketball/pickleball/shuffleboard courts, recreation facilities, laundry, wheelchair access, and cable TV; Association approval required; Buyer approval required in community; Senior community; cats allowed; Golf carts permitted; Optional additional fees may apply

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Carport (3 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story; Faces east; Property condition: completed; Water access to Intracoastal Waterway
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Double wide body type
• Exterior features: Porch; Storage; Landscaped lot; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-903/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#129 in FL, #1,925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Venice Elementary School (math 80% / reading 77%, grade A, #141 of 2,144 statewide, top 7%, 608 students, 43% FRL); Venice Middle School (math 71% / reading 58%, grade A-, #100 of 571 statewide, top 18%, 761 students, 37% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,599 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,170
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,697
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34285

• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$385
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $186,599

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-19	+0% $-75	+5% $-132	+10% $-427
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-149	+0% $-75	+5% $-1	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-24	base $-75	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $385 · $4,620/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $435 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,659 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,224/yr (+$102/mo · 281.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − HOA: −$4,620
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Venice

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #1925

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venice, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 86,541
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,677
• Household income: $68,301
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.42%
• Current HPI: 264.6389
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.78%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-30.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $227,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-04 Listed $287,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $435 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.