305 Sunset Dr · Holley, NY 14470

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1991 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot Est $76k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Delayed Negotiations May 27th 1pm. Located at Heron Falls just a few minutes from Brockport (Shopping, Banking, Car Wash, Groceries and more! Come see this well maintained 3-bedroom, 2 bath with an open floor plan. Home ss in Clarendon on Rte31a South side. Nice size bedroom . Home backs up to the woods for a quiet backyard and 2 sheds. Lot rent is $740.00

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• 2 sheds
• Quiet backyard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BACKS UP TO THE WOODS
• QUIET BACKYARD
• 2 SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $740

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Cable available; High-speed internet available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electrical system
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story; Resale property; Titan make
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Enclosed porch; Open porch; Patio; Propane tank (leased); Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Combined living/dining room; Sliding glass doors; Bath in primary bedroom; Primary bedroom on main level; Thermal windows; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer; Electric and propane water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.4% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.79%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
299 Sunset Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+0%)	10mo	$50,100	$32	89
211 Sunset Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+0%)	1mo	$45,000	$29	79
155 Trinity Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	13mo	$55,000	$36	79
128 Trinity Drive Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	1mo	$82,500	$49	77
283 Sunset Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	11mo	$47,500	$33	74
291 Sunset Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	18mo	$70,000	$49	68
537 Rockview Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+4%)	7mo	$94,000	$58	67
225 Sunset Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	8mo	$103,000	$61	65
903 Cobblestone Ct	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (-4%)	12mo	$117,000	$78	60
525 Rockview Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,612 (+3%)	19mo	$66,000	$41	58
127 Trinity Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,792 (+15%)	11mo	$62,000	$35	52
4694 Hall Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	15mo	$170,000	$126	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $18,864
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $57,402
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14470

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $902/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $668

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $79,900 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,126 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$224/yr (+$19/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$902
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,001
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $4,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is located in a desirable area. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and value of the home.
• Both Clean and maintain gutters — Clean gutters improve the home's appearance and prevent water damage.
• Both Upgrade landscaping — A more landscaped yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install new windows — Newer, energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value.
• Both Update HVAC system — A modern HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and value of the home. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain gutters — Clean gutters improve the home's appearance and prevent water damage. ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — A more landscaped yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install new windows — Newer, energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Update HVAC system — A modern HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,177
• Composite: 35.13/100
• National rank: #5013
• State rank: #505 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #13281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,765

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.80%
• Current HPI: 287.9167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $902 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.