157 E Summerhaze Cir · The Woodlands, TX 77382

$285,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 95 Days on market

Built 2003 3,302 sqft lot $178/sqft · 21% below area Est $361k · 21% under $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located townhome in The Woodlands, boasting a kitchen with new stainless steel appliances, ample storage, and natural light throughout. Fresh paint, light fixtures, hardware. The living room features a breakfast bar and opens to a cozy backyard with a deck and no rear neighbors. Upstairs, find a primary suite with a separate shower and tub, double sinks, and flexible space for office or playroom. New AC 2024, ceiling fans, and water heater 2022 ensure move-in readiness. New fence (parts), New backdoor. Enjoy community amenities and nearby trails at Summerhaze and Greenbridge. This home is zoned to A-Rated schools.

Key facts

• Double sinks
• No rear neighbors
• New ac

Tags

• AMPLE STORAGE
• NATURAL LIGHT THROUGHOUT
• COZY BACKYARD WITH A DECK
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• DOUBLE SINKS
• NEW AC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-484 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($162k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 14150% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,467 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.28%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,702
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -20.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Veranda Ridge Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+2%)	7mo	$339,900	$207	67
27 Veranda Ridge Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+2%)	16mo	$334,900	$204	58
138 S Veranda Ridge Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+10%)	3mo	$349,500	$199	56
34 W Foxbriar Forest Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+11%)	1mo	$310,000	$174	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-80,577
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-123,949
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77382

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,209/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,762

Max offer price $199,467

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,171	$1.37	2d	1	1.07mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1387	$2,087	$1.50	2d	1	1.07mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2476 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,203	$1.40	10d	1	1.08mi
2443 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2480 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1387	$2,119	$1.53	10d	1	1.08mi
4400 College Park Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,227	$2.21	1d	28	1.18mi
2443 FM 1488 Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	1181	$1,711	$1.45	24d	1	1.22mi
2443 Farm To Market RD Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,385	$2.26	1d	36	1.24mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,765	$1.25	10d	1	1.25mi
2477 Farm To Market RD Conroe, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1129	$1,742	$1.54	1d	38	1.25mi
175 Merryweather Pl Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$1,990	$1.10	17d	1	1.29mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,722	$1.22	2d	1	1.31mi
2477 Farm to Market Road 1488 #2510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,754	$1.25	10d	1	1.31mi
7575 Gosling Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,245	$2.43	1d	23	1.33mi
3720 College Park Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	983	$1,901	$1.93	1d	51	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $285,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $285,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-05-05
   listed $2,000
4. 2026-02-26
   listed $285,000 Active 634-char remark

   Show marketing remark (634 chars)

   Conveniently located townhome in The Woodlands, boasting a kitchen with new stainless steel appliances, ample storage, and natural light throughout. Fresh paint, light fixtures, hardware. The living room features a breakfast bar and opens to a cozy backyard with a deck and no rear neighbors. Upstairs, find a primary suite with a separate shower and tub, double sinks, and flexible space for office or playroom. New AC 2024, ceiling fans, and water heater 2022 ensure move-in readiness. New fence (parts), New backdoor. Enjoy community amenities and nearby trails at Summerhaze and Greenbridge. This home is zoned to A-Rated schools.

5. 2025-07-25
   soldstatus
6. 2025-07-24
   soldstatus Closed 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Conveniently located townhome in The Woodlands, boasting a kitchen with new stainless steel appliances, ample storage, and natural light throughout. The living room features a breakfast bar and opens to a cozy backyard with a deck and no rear neighbors. Upstairs, find a primary suite with a separate shower and tub, double sinks, and flexible space for office or playroom. New AC, ceiling fans, and water heater ensure move-in readiness. Enjoy community amenities and nearby trails at Summerhaze and Greenbridge. This home is zoned to A-Rated schools.

7. 2025-06-24
   status Pending 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Conveniently located townhome in The Woodlands, boasting a kitchen with new stainless steel appliances, ample storage, and natural light throughout. The living room features a breakfast bar and opens to a cozy backyard with a deck and no rear neighbors. Upstairs, find a primary suite with a separate shower and tub, double sinks, and flexible space for office or playroom. New AC, ceiling fans, and water heater ensure move-in readiness. Enjoy community amenities and nearby trails at Summerhaze and Greenbridge. This home is zoned to A-Rated schools.

8. 2025-06-23
   status Option Pending 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Conveniently located townhome in The Woodlands, boasting a kitchen with new stainless steel appliances, ample storage, and natural light throughout. The living room features a breakfast bar and opens to a cozy backyard with a deck and no rear neighbors. Upstairs, find a primary suite with a separate shower and tub, double sinks, and flexible space for office or playroom. New AC, ceiling fans, and water heater ensure move-in readiness. Enjoy community amenities and nearby trails at Summerhaze and Greenbridge. This home is zoned to A-Rated schools.

9. 2025-06-10
   listed $284,900 Active 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Conveniently located townhome in The Woodlands, boasting a kitchen with new stainless steel appliances, ample storage, and natural light throughout. The living room features a breakfast bar and opens to a cozy backyard with a deck and no rear neighbors. Upstairs, find a primary suite with a separate shower and tub, double sinks, and flexible space for office or playroom. New AC, ceiling fans, and water heater ensure move-in readiness. Enjoy community amenities and nearby trails at Summerhaze and Greenbridge. This home is zoned to A-Rated schools.

10. 2019-07-03
    soldstatus
11. 2019-07-01
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2019-06-06
    status Pending
13. 2019-05-23
    status Option Pending
14. 2019-05-06
    price $185,000
15. 2019-04-01
    listed $190,000 Active
16. 2010-09-15
    soldstatus
17. 2006-01-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,209 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,216 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$7/yr (+$1/mo · 0.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$5,209
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$10,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,602
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,986
• Household income: $162,384
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 616.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 15% Asian 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.44%
• Current HPI: 233.2304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $284,900 HARMLS
• 2019-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-06-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-05-06 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-01 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2010-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,209 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.