Newlin Plan · Seguin, TX 78155

$197,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $197,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Newlin plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Address: 3400 Canyon Ridge Fqtfgu, Seguin, TX 78155

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,484 finished area)

🏗️ New construction. The $197,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,569.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-340 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oralia R Rodriguez El (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 475 students, 83% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,831 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,569
• List price: $197,999
• Delta: -24.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
728 Canyon Run	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	6mo	$187,999	$127	83
728 Canyon Vw	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$193,999	$131	82
3560 Canyon Rdg	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-1%)	2mo	$200,999	$136	82
3581 Sky Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	1mo	$187,999	$127	81
3569 Canyon Rdg	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$187,999	$127	80
3581 Canyon Rdg	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$197,999	$133	79
3556 Canyon Rdg	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	1mo	$200,999	$120	58
3549 Canyon Rdg	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	3mo	$200,999	$120	57
724 Canyon Vw	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	4mo	$204,999	$122	56
3572 Canyon Rdg	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	1mo	$189,999	$113	55
3565 Canyon Rdg	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	3mo	$203,999	$122	55
3580 Canyon Rdg	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	2mo	$210,999	$126	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-65,764
• Equity at exit: $39,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-92,158
• Equity at exit: $22,616

Cash invested: $73,239 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,372
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,924/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,288

Max offer price $212,431

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-159	-5% $-249	+0% $-340	+5% $-430	+10% $-520
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-413	+0% $-340	+5% $-266	+10% $-193
Rate	-1.0pp $-208	-0.5pp $-273	base $-340	+0.5pp $-407	+1.0pp $-476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,392
• Closing costs: $7,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3209 Ridge Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,700	$1.25	45d	1	0.10mi
3572 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,700	$1.01	3d	1	0.38mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,495	$1.52	3d	1	0.76mi
358 Lake Placid Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,800	$1.55	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $197,999 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,999 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,999 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,999 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,999 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,999 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,999 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $197,999 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $197,999 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,999 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,999 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,999 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,999 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $197,999 Active 399-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,652
• − Property taxes: −$3,924
• − Insurance: −$1,308
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − Depreciation: −$7,609
• Taxable loss: −$8,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,103
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home presents as move-in ready with a good condition score and a good rehab level. It offers a spacious open floorplan and a well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures (if needed) — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Regular maintenance can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal can enhance the home's overall appearance and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures (if needed) — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Regular maintenance can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal can enhance the home's overall appearance and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B