856 Lincoln Ave · Toledo, OH 43607

$99,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,034 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1897 4,900 sqft lot $33/sqft · at area comps Est $80k · 24% over ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity to enhance your portfolio! Both units are currently rented. Recent updates include new drywall, appliances, carpet, and fresh paint. The third-story dormer with private access offers potential as a third unit. The full basement is divided to accommodate both units. Conveniently located within walking distance to the Art Museum and just minutes from downtown. Property access available with an accepted offer. Can be bought as package with 433 Islington.

Key facts

• Third-story dormer
• Full basement
• Private access

Tags

• THIRD-STORY DORMER
• PRIVATE ACCESS
• FULL BASEMENT
• WALKING DISTANCE TO ART MUSEUM
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.4% vs local median 7.5% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,307/mo this rent would consume 96% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 1157% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.98%
• DSCR: 4.83
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,285
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 24.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
907 Oakwood Ave	0.11mi	4/2.0	2,709 (-11%)	7mo	$125,000	$46	71
2750 Monroe St	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,750 (-9%)	13mo	$140,000	$51	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $128,941
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.8%
• Equity multiple: 13.73×
• Total profit: $356,194
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43607

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,307 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $513/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$694
• Net cashflow: $2,004

Break-even live

Break-even rent $770

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,061	-5% $2,033	+0% $2,004	+5% $1,976	+10% $1,948
Rent	-10% $1,743	-5% $1,874	+0% $2,004	+5% $2,135	+10% $2,266
Rate	-1.0pp $2,055	-0.5pp $2,030	base $2,004	+0.5pp $1,978	+1.0pp $1,952

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$3,306
Total (3 units)			$3,307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Contingent 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Contingent 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Contingent 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Contingent 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,900 Contingent 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,900 Contingent 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,900 Contingent 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,900 Contingent 60 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Contingent 59 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Contingent 58 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    historical Contingent 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity to enhance your portfolio! Both units are currently rented. Recent updates include new drywall, appliances, carpet, and fresh paint. The third-story dormer with private access offers potential as a third unit. The full basement is divided to accommodate both units. Conveniently located within walking distance to the Art Museum and just minutes from downtown. Property access available with an accepted offer. Can be bought as package with 433 Islington.

13. 2026-04-02
    listed $99,900 Active 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity to enhance your portfolio! Both units are currently rented. Recent updates include new drywall, appliances, carpet, and fresh paint. The third-story dormer with private access offers potential as a third unit. The full basement is divided to accommodate both units. Conveniently located within walking distance to the Art Museum and just minutes from downtown. Property access available with an accepted offer. Can be bought as package with 433 Islington.

14. 2025-10-17
    historical
15. 2025-10-14
    price $80,000
16. 2025-08-18
    status Active
17. 2025-07-23
    historical Contingent
18. 2025-07-12
    price $89,900
19. 2025-05-24
    price $99,000
20. 2025-05-14
    status Active
21. 2025-05-02
    historical Contingent
22. 2025-04-21
    listed $109,900 Active
23. 2025-02-07
    soldstatus $80,000
24. 2025-02-03
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed
25. 2025-01-13
    historical Contingent
26. 2024-12-19
    status Active
27. 2024-12-19
    price $99,900
28. 2024-11-18
    historical Contingent
29. 2024-10-08
    price $109,900
30. 2024-09-17
    status Active
31. 2024-08-26
    historical Contingent
32. 2024-07-06
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $513 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,036 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$523/yr (+$44/mo · 101.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$513
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,175
• − Management: −$3,175
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $23,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,717
• After-tax cash flow: $18,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,469
• Household income: $41,335
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1157.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.58%
• Current HPI: 175.2772
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — NORIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $99,900 NORIS
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $80,000 NORIS
• 2025-08-18 Relisted — NORIS
• 2025-07-23 Contingent — NORIS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $89,900 NORIS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $99,000 NORIS
• 2025-05-14 Relisted — NORIS
• 2025-05-02 Contingent — NORIS
• 2025-04-21 Listed $109,900 NORIS
• 2025-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-03 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NORIS
• 2025-01-13 Contingent — NORIS
• 2024-12-19 Relisted — NORIS
• 2024-12-19 Price Changed $99,900 NORIS
• 2024-11-18 Contingent — NORIS
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $109,900 NORIS
• 2024-09-17 Relisted — NORIS
• 2024-08-26 Contingent — NORIS
• 2024-07-06 Listed $119,900 NORIS

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $513 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.