812 Fitzhugh St · Bay City, MI 48708

$52,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 320 Days on market

Built 1910 2,613 sqft lot $60/sqft · 15% below area Est $61k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

Key facts

• 2,613 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 320 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $363 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $46,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.99%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,428
• List price: $52,500
• Delta: -14.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
605 19th St	0.04mi	3/1.0	930 (+6%)	1mo	$49,000	$53	88
714 S Madison St	0.15mi	3/1.0	900 (+2%)	7mo	$100,000	$111	84
807 Fraser St	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	828 (-6%)	4mo	$42,500	$51	80
800 Franklin St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-9%)	1mo	$63,000	$79	72
610 15th St	0.26mi	3/1.0	960 (+9%)	3mo	$107,000	$111	70
720 S Sherman St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (+4%)	2mo	$232,000	$252	64
820 Michigan Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-2%)	0mo	$42,500	$49	63
801 Wilson St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	853 (-3%)	1mo	$114,900	$135	60
806 15th St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	770 (-12%)	2mo	$56,800	$74	58
1017 S Lincoln St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+6%)	4mo	$87,900	$94	52
809 28th St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+9%)	6mo	$128,000	$133	48
217 S Vanburen St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,002 (+14%)	6mo	$10,000	$10	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $17,281
• Equity at exit: $7,828

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $48,401
• Equity at exit: $4,539

Cash invested: $14,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$275
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,508/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $535

Max offer price $52,500

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,125
• Closing costs: $1,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	0.06mi
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	44d	1	0.85mi
403 Polk St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	748	$1,000	$1.34	44d	1	0.95mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $52,500 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $52,500 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $52,500 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $52,500 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $52,500 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $52,500 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-04-11
   price $52,500 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

8. 2026-01-07
   price $57,500 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

9. 2026-01-06
   status Active 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

10. 2025-11-29
    historical 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

11. 2025-09-15
    status Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

12. 2025-09-14
    historical 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

13. 2025-09-10
    price $59,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

14. 2025-08-07
    price $62,100 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

15. 2025-07-15
    price $69,000 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

16. 2025-06-10
    listed $75,000 Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    * Price Improvement * 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom investment property featuring reliable long-term tenant already in place. This rental home offers excellent cash flow potential with proven rental history. Well-maintained property in established Bay City location provides the perfect combination of affordability and rental demand. Current tenant relationship ensures seamless transition for new investor.

17. 2021-04-15
    soldstatus $52,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,941
• − Property taxes: −$1,508
• − Insurance: −$262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$1,527
• Taxable income: $4,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $3,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $52,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $57,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-15 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $59,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $62,100 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $69,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,508 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.