1412 Johns Rd · Sun Valley, PA 18330

$124,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1959 0.68 ac lot $137/sqft · 15% below area Est $147k · 15% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 1 Bath Home with Open Layout. New Roof, Windows, Siding, and Hot Water Heater. Updated Kitchen and Bathroom. Perfect Starter Home. Adjacent Parcel Is Also Included With the Sale for an Additional . 34 acres. Total Taxes for this Lot are $412.20. Pin ID #02632002967522

Key facts

• Open layout
• Updated kitchen
• New roof

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,162 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.75%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,141
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -15.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1114 Bayberry Rd	0.33mi	2/1.0 (+1)	936 (+3%)	23mo	$169,900	$182	57
1507 Upper Valley Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (-14%)	6mo	$145,000	$185	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $20,150
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $69,626
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18330

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,516/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,086

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $704	-5% $669	+0% $634	+5% $598	+10% $563
Rent	-10% $485	-5% $559	+0% $634	+5% $708	+10% $783
Rate	-1.0pp $697	-0.5pp $666	base $634	+0.5pp $601	+1.0pp $568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Active 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 1 Bath Home with Open Layout. New Roof, Windows, Siding, and Hot Water Heater. Updated Kitchen and Bathroom. Perfect Starter Home. Adjacent Parcel Is Also Included With the Sale for an Additional . 34 acres. Total Taxes for this Lot are $412.20. Pin ID #02632002967522

2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 1 Bath Home with Open Layout. New Roof, Windows, Siding, and Hot Water Heater. Updated Kitchen and Bathroom. Perfect Starter Home. Adjacent Parcel Is Also Included With the Sale for an Additional . 34 acres. Total Taxes for this Lot are $412.20. Pin ID #02632002967522

3. 2026-04-13
   listed $124,900 Active 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   3 Bedroom, 1 Bath Home with Open Layout. New Roof, Windows, Siding, and Hot Water Heater. Updated Kitchen and Bathroom. Perfect Starter Home. Adjacent Parcel Is Also Included With the Sale for an Additional . 34 acres. Total Taxes for this Lot are $412.20. Pin ID #02632002967522

4. 2025-10-20
   price $109,000
5. 2025-09-02
   listed $115,000 Active
6. 2025-08-01
   price $115,000
7. 2025-06-24
   price $119,900
8. 2025-05-19
   status Active
9. 2025-05-19
   price $129,900
10. 2025-04-07
    status Pending
11. 2025-03-18
    price $149,900
12. 2025-02-05
    price $159,900
13. 2024-11-09
    price $164,900
14. 2024-10-29
    historical $1,750
15. 2024-10-16
    price $174,900
16. 2024-09-28
    listed $1,750
17. 2024-09-24
    listed $184,900 Active
18. 2024-01-05
    soldstatus $550,000
19. 2023-12-07
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
20. 2023-11-03
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,744 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$229/yr (+$19/mo · 15.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,516
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $5,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,432
• After-tax cash flow: $6,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4219290
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $61,593
• Composite: 37.18/100
• National rank: #4476
• State rank: #297 of 539 in PA

Livability — Sun Valley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1162
• US rank: #13440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun Valley, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,586

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 14% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.25%
• Current HPI: 165.6142
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+66.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-04-14 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $124,900 PMAR
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $109,000 PMAR
• 2025-09-02 Listed $115,000 PMAR
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $115,000 PMAR
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $119,900 PMAR
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — PMAR
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $129,900 PMAR
• 2025-04-07 Pending — PMAR
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $149,900 PMAR
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $159,900 PMAR
• 2024-11-09 Price Changed $164,900 PMAR
• 2024-10-29 Rental Removed $1,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $174,900 PMAR
• 2024-09-28 Listed for Rent $1,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-09-24 Listed $184,900 PMAR
• 2024-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-07 Sold (MLS) $50,000 PMAR
• 2023-11-03 Listed $75,000 PMAR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,516 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.