178 SE 154th Ave · Fanning Springs, FL 32680

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 405 Days on market

Built 1995 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-Bed, 2-Bath Mobile Home on 1 Acre in Old Town, FL – Outdoor Lover's Paradise! Escape to the heart of North Florida with this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home nestled on a fully fenced 1-acre lot in Old Town. Just five minutes from the historic Suwannee River and only 20 minutes from the sparkling waters of the Gulf of America , this property offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living and outdoor adventure. Step inside to find an open floor plan with a comfortable living area, a functional kitchen with cabinetry, and a split-bedroom layout offering privacy for the whole family. The master suite features its own private bath, while two additional bedroo

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Open floor plan
• Room to park boat

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• ROOM TO PARK BOAT
• ROOM TO PARK RV

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Sits on 1 acre
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.7% in Fanning Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#739 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 405 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $135k implies a 799% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 405 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.43%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $94,340
• Equity at exit: $121,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.92×
• Total profit: $261,320
• Equity at exit: $262,081

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32680

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $995/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $366	+0% $328	+5% $290	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $211	-5% $269	+0% $328	+5% $387	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $362	base $328	+0.5pp $293	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,900 Active 405 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 403 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 402 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 401 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 400 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 398 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 397 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 394 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 393 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 392 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 391 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $134,900 Active 388 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 387 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 386 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 385 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 384 DOM
17. 2026-02-14
    status Active
18. 2026-02-10
    status Pending
19. 2025-07-01
    price $134,900
20. 2025-05-08
    price $139,900
21. 2025-05-08
    listed $134,900 Active
22. 2023-08-05
    listed $139,900 Active
23. 2023-03-13
    price $133,999
24. 2023-01-17
    listed $139,900 Active
25. 2018-05-11
    soldstatus $15,000
26. 2018-04-04
    listed $21,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$995
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,427
• − Management: −$1,427
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $1,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$441
• After-tax cash flow: $3,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dixie
• NCES district ID: 1200450
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,799
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3290
• State rank: #36 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fanning Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #15960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,445

Population outlook (Dixie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,122 people
• By 2030: 14,521 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 13,503 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 12,671 · -16.2%
• By 2075: 10,857 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 8,344 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dixie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -45.0pp · 2024: -70.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+66.0 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+45.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.22%
• Current HPI: 424.0037
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+516.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Relisted — DGLMLS
• 2026-02-10 Pending — DGLMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $134,900 DGLMLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $139,900 DGLMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $134,900 DGLMLS
• 2023-08-05 Listed $139,900 DGLMLS
• 2023-03-13 Price Changed $133,999 DGLMLS
• 2023-01-17 Listed $139,900 DGLMLS
• 2018-05-11 Sold (MLS) $15,000 DGLMLS
• 2018-04-04 Listed $21,900 DGLMLS

Property tax history

+47.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $995 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.