🏗️ New Construction
4714 Tony St · Winter Haven, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +10.9/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- 1% rule +3.7/10.0
- Schools +3.7/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- DSCR +3.2/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$224,990
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
The property is located at 4714 Tony Street LAKE WALES FL 33859 priced at 243990, the square foot and stories are 1464, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 1 garages. For more details please, call or email.
Key facts
- Quartz countertops
- Open concept living
- Spacious kitchen
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (5.7% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (12.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $196k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Winter Haven — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
- Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Southwest Elementary School (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 382 students, 60% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: 488 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.87% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.76%
- Cash-on-cash
- -1.90%
- DSCR
- 0.92
- GRM
- 9.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $226,615
- List price
- $224,990
- Delta
- -0.72%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 6 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3025 Captain Jax Way | 0.93mi | 3/2.5 | 1,423 (-3%) | 1mo | $226,990 | $160 | 60 |
| 3040 Captain Jax Way | 0.93mi | 3/2.5 | 1,423 (-3%) | 1mo | $244,990 | $172 | 60 |
| 3036 Captain Jax Way | 0.93mi | 3/2.5 | 1,423 (-3%) | 2mo | $239,990 | $169 | 59 |
| 3032 Captain Jax Way | 0.93mi | 3/2.5 | 1,386 (-5%) | 0mo | $226,240 | $163 | 56 |
| 3009 Captain Jax Way | 0.93mi | 3/2.5 | 1,386 (-5%) | 2mo | $219,990 | $159 | 55 |
| 3013 Captain Jax Way | 0.93mi | 3/2.5 | 1,386 (-5%) | 2mo | $219,990 | $159 | 55 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -19.4%
- Equity multiple
- 0.32×
- Total profit
- $-43,030
- Equity at exit
- $33,789
- IRR
- -12.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.29×
- Total profit
- $-45,365
- Equity at exit
- $19,594
Cash invested: $63,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 10 active · 27 under contract
- Months of supply
- 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $224,990 ($154/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 117 d
- This list price
- 10% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +0.7% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33859
- Home prices YoY
- -16.6%
- Active inventory
- 488
- Price-to-rent
- 9.5×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,964 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,188
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$283 /mo · $3,399/yr
- Insurance
- −$94
- HOA
- −$86
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$412
- Net cashflow
- $-100
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $56 | -5% $-22 | +0% $-100 | +5% $-179 | +10% $-257 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-256 | -5% $-178 | +0% $-100 | +5% $-23 | +10% $55 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $14 | -0.5pp $-43 | base $-100 | +0.5pp $-159 | +1.0pp $-219 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $56,654
- Closing costs
- $6,798
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 21 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4019 Penelope Ave Lake Wales, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1812 | $1,900 | $1.05 | 133d | 1 | 0.15mi |
| 2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1824 | $2,030 | $1.11 | 164d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1801 | $2,030 | $1.13 | 144d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 2102 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1824 | $2,100 | $1.15 | 133d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 2175 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1429 | $1,850 | $1.29 | 19d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 2175 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1429 | $1,850 | $1.29 | 29d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 1688 Teagan Ln Lake Wales, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1432 | $1,795 | $1.25 | 2d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 1926 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1874 | $2,300 | $1.23 | 15d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 1662 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1432 | $1,900 | $1.33 | 2d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 1938 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1874 | $2,000 | $1.07 | 2d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 1938 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1874 | $2,050 | $1.09 | 28d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 1970 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1060 | $1,850 | $1.75 | 54d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1540 | $2,100 | $1.36 | 10d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1555 | $2,250 | $1.45 | 164d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1540 | $2,100 | $1.36 | 36d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 1993 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1838 | $1,998 | $1.09 | 164d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 336 Kayden Cv Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1444 | $1,950 | $1.35 | 1d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 516 Reggie Rd Unit A Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1700 | $1,749 | $1.03 | 11d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 3013 Sylas Jax Ave Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1386 | $2,050 | $1.48 | 2d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 3036 Sylas Jax Ave Winter Haven, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1423 | $2,050 | $1.44 | 2d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 1172 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1509 | $2,600 | $1.72 | 110d | 1 | 1.02mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Home warranty includedPermit number: 25-110406CDD present
- Financial info
- Other annual assessment: $1,638Lease restrictions apply
- HOA & community
- HOA managed by Garrison Property ServicesMonthly HOA fee of $86HOA covers pool, management and recreational facilitiesCommunity amenities: pool, playground, park, pickleball courts, sidewalks, street lights, community mailboxPets allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage (1 car)
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerBB/HS internet availableCable availableElectricity connectedPhone availableSewer connectedWater connected
- Home design
- TownhouseResidential propertyTwo storiesUnder construction (projected completion Aug 31, 2026)East-facing
- Construction
- Block and stucco constructionShingle roofBuilt by D.R. Horton (model: Pearson)New constructionSlab foundationBuilder license CRC057592Living area from builder: 1,463 (builder source)
- Exterior features
- Exterior lightingSidewalkIrrigation equipmentCity limits lotPaved lot and road
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorStone counters
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms (two-story home)
- Flooring
- Carpet
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric, heat pump)Central air conditioning
- Interior features
- Open floorplanStone countersThermostatWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsBlinds
- Laundry & utility
- WasherDryerElectric water heaterLaundry closet on upper levelInside laundry
Listing history 50 events
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2026-11-08days on market $224,990 Active 72 DOM
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2026-11-07days on market $224,990 Active 71 DOM
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2026-11-06days on market $224,990 Active 70 DOM
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2026-11-05days on market $224,990 Active 69 DOM
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2026-11-04days on market $224,990 Active 68 DOM
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2026-11-02days on market $224,990 Active 66 DOM
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2026-11-01days on market $224,990 Active 65 DOM
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2026-10-31days on market $224,990 Active 64 DOM
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2026-10-30days on market $224,990 Active 63 DOM
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2026-10-29days on market $224,990 Active 62 DOM
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2026-10-28days on market $224,990 Active 61 DOM
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2026-10-27days on market $224,990 Active 60 DOM
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2026-10-26days on market $224,990 Active 59 DOM
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2026-10-25days on market $224,990 Active 58 DOM
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2026-10-24days on market $224,990 Active 57 DOM
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2026-10-23days on market $224,990 Active 56 DOM
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2026-10-22days on market $224,990 Active 55 DOM
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2026-10-21days on market $224,990 Active 54 DOM
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2026-10-20days on market $224,990 Active 53 DOM
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2026-10-19days on market $224,990 Active 52 DOM
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2026-10-18days on market $224,990 Active 51 DOM
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2026-10-17days on market $224,990 Active 50 DOM
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2026-10-16days on market $224,990 Active 49 DOM
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2026-10-15days on market $224,990 Active 48 DOM
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2026-10-14days on market $224,990 Active 47 DOM
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2026-10-13days on market $224,990 Active 46 DOM
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2026-10-12days on market $224,990 Active 45 DOM
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2026-10-11days on market $224,990 Active 44 DOM
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2026-10-10days on market $224,990 Active 43 DOM
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2026-10-09days on market $224,990 Active 42 DOM
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2026-10-08days on market $224,990 Active 41 DOM
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2026-10-07days on market $224,990 Active 40 DOM
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2026-10-06days on market $224,990 Active 39 DOM
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2026-10-05days on market $224,990 Active 38 DOM
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2026-10-04days on market $224,990 Active 37 DOM
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2026-10-03days on market $224,990 Active 36 DOM
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2026-10-02days on market $224,990 Active 35 DOM
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2026-10-01days on market $224,990 Active 34 DOM
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2026-09-30days on market $224,990 Active 33 DOM
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2026-09-29days on market $224,990 Active 32 DOM
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2026-09-28days on market $224,990 Active 31 DOM
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2026-09-27days on market $224,990 Active 30 DOM
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2026-09-25days on market $224,990 Active 28 DOM
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2026-09-24days on market $224,990 Active 27 DOM
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2026-09-23days on market $224,990 Active 26 DOM
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2026-09-22days on market $224,990 Active 25 DOM
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2026-09-21days on market $224,990 Active 24 DOM
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2026-09-20days on market $224,990 Active 23 DOM
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2026-09-19days on market $224,990 Active 22 DOM
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2026-09-18days on market $224,990 Active 21 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,571
- − Mortgage interest
- −$12,694
- − Property taxes
- −$3,399
- − Insurance
- −$1,133
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,886
- − Management
- −$1,886
- − HOA
- −$1,032
- − Depreciation
- −$6,592
- Taxable loss
- −$5,051
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,212
- After-tax cash flow
- $8/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos
This property is in excellent condition with a fresh exterior and interior, modern appliances, and a well-maintained landscaping. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to further enhance its curb appeal and modern appeal.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
- Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal, making the home more desirable for both buyers and renters. ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Polk
- NCES district ID
- 1201590
- Math proficiency
- 39% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 43% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,979
- Composite
- 34.74/100
- National rank
- #5132
- State rank
- #62 of 73 in FL
Livability — Winter Haven
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #291
- US rank
- #4898
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Winter Haven, FL
- County
- Polk County · 752,975 people
- City population
- 121,740
- Metro
- Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 11,824
- Household income
- $57,760
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 752,975 people
- By 2030
- 804,621 · +6.9%
- By 2040
- 906,117 · +20.3%
- By 2050
- 1,000,476 · +32.9%
- By 2075
- 1,197,520 · +59.0%
- By 2100
- 1,271,518 · +68.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Majority White (61%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
- Languages at home
- 79% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Polk
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -53.19%
- Current HPI
- 267.4537
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
+0.4% since first listed7 events — show timeline
- 2026-08-28 Listed $243,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-08-27 Relisted — Zillow
- 2026-07-14 Delisted — Zillow
- 2026-07-09 Relisted — Zillow
- 2026-06-16 Delisted — Zillow
- 2026-05-06 Price Changed $243,990 Zillow
- 2026-04-28 Listed $242,990 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…