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4714 Tony St 🏗️ New Construction
D- Composite 39.05
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +10.9/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.7/10.0
  • Schools +3.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.7/5.0
  • DSCR +3.2/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$224,990

4714 Tony St · Winter Haven, FL 33859
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,463 sqft · Townhouse · 72 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition 1,742 sqft lot Garage $86/mo HOA · 4% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 4714 Tony Street LAKE WALES FL 33859 priced at 243990, the square foot and stories are 1464, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 3 bedrooms and 1 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

  • Quartz countertops
  • Open concept living
  • Spacious kitchen

Tags

OPEN CONCEPT LIVINGSPACIOUS KITCHENCOVERED PATIOSTAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESQUARTZ COUNTERTOPSWALK IN CLOSET

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $224,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $226,615.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (5.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (12.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $196k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Winter Haven — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
  • Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Southwest Elementary School (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 382 students, 60% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: 488 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $196,422 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.87% ✗
Cap rate
5.76%
Cash-on-cash
-1.90%
DSCR
0.92
GRM
9.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$226,615
List price
$224,990
Delta
-0.72%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
6 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3025 Captain Jax Way 0.93mi 3/2.5 1,423 (-3%) 1mo $226,990 $160 60
3040 Captain Jax Way 0.93mi 3/2.5 1,423 (-3%) 1mo $244,990 $172 60
3036 Captain Jax Way 0.93mi 3/2.5 1,423 (-3%) 2mo $239,990 $169 59
3032 Captain Jax Way 0.93mi 3/2.5 1,386 (-5%) 0mo $226,240 $163 56
3009 Captain Jax Way 0.93mi 3/2.5 1,386 (-5%) 2mo $219,990 $159 55
3013 Captain Jax Way 0.93mi 3/2.5 1,386 (-5%) 2mo $219,990 $159 55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-19.4%
Equity multiple
0.32×
Total profit
$-43,030
Equity at exit
$33,789
10-year hold
IRR
-12.0%
Equity multiple
0.29×
Total profit
$-45,365
Equity at exit
$19,594

Cash invested: $63,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
10 active · 27 under contract
Months of supply
10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$224,990 ($154/sqft)
Median days on market
117 d
This list price
10% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+0.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33859

Home prices YoY
-16.6%
Active inventory
488
Price-to-rent
9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,964 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,188
Tax est. 1.5%
−$283 /mo · $3,399/yr
Insurance
−$94
HOA
−$86
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$412
Net cashflow
$-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091
Max offer price $212,094
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $56 -5% $-22 +0% $-100 +5% $-179 +10% $-257
Rent -10% $-256 -5% $-178 +0% $-100 +5% $-23 +10% $55
Rate -1.0pp $14 -0.5pp $-43 base $-100 +0.5pp $-159 +1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$56,654
Closing costs
$6,798
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4019 Penelope Ave Lake Wales, FL 4.0 2.0 1812 $1,900 $1.05 133d 1 0.15mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL 4.0 2.0 1824 $2,030 $1.11 164d 1 0.31mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL 4.0 2.0 1801 $2,030 $1.13 144d 1 0.31mi
2102 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL 4.0 2.0 1824 $2,100 $1.15 133d 1 0.31mi
2175 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.0 1429 $1,850 $1.29 19d 1 0.35mi
2175 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.0 1429 $1,850 $1.29 29d 1 0.35mi
1688 Teagan Ln Lake Wales, FL 3.0 2.0 1432 $1,795 $1.25 2d 1 0.38mi
1926 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL 4.0 2.5 1874 $2,300 $1.23 15d 1 0.41mi
1662 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.0 1432 $1,900 $1.33 2d 1 0.42mi
1938 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL 4.0 2.5 1874 $2,000 $1.07 2d 1 0.43mi
1938 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL 4.0 2.5 1874 $2,050 $1.09 28d 1 0.43mi
1970 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.0 1060 $1,850 $1.75 54d 1 0.49mi
1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.0 1540 $2,100 $1.36 10d 1 0.51mi
1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.0 1555 $2,250 $1.45 164d 1 0.51mi
1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.0 1540 $2,100 $1.36 36d 1 0.51mi
1993 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL 4.0 2.0 1838 $1,998 $1.09 164d 1 0.55mi
336 Kayden Cv Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.0 1444 $1,950 $1.35 1d 1 0.74mi
516 Reggie Rd Unit A Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.0 1700 $1,749 $1.03 11d 1 0.77mi
3013 Sylas Jax Ave Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.5 1386 $2,050 $1.48 2d 1 0.94mi
3036 Sylas Jax Ave Winter Haven, FL 3.0 2.5 1423 $2,050 $1.44 2d 1 0.94mi
1172 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL 4.0 3.0 1509 $2,600 $1.72 110d 1 1.02mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Home warranty includedPermit number: 25-110406CDD present
Financial info
Other annual assessment: $1,638Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
HOA managed by Garrison Property ServicesMonthly HOA fee of $86HOA covers pool, management and recreational facilitiesCommunity amenities: pool, playground, park, pickleball courts, sidewalks, street lights, community mailboxPets allowed

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage (1 car)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerBB/HS internet availableCable availableElectricity connectedPhone availableSewer connectedWater connected
Home design
TownhouseResidential propertyTwo storiesUnder construction (projected completion Aug 31, 2026)East-facing
Construction
Block and stucco constructionShingle roofBuilt by D.R. Horton (model: Pearson)New constructionSlab foundationBuilder license CRC057592Living area from builder: 1,463 (builder source)
Exterior features
Exterior lightingSidewalkIrrigation equipmentCity limits lotPaved lot and road

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorStone counters
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms (two-story home)
Flooring
Carpet
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric, heat pump)Central air conditioning
Interior features
Open floorplanStone countersThermostatWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsBlinds
Laundry & utility
WasherDryerElectric water heaterLaundry closet on upper levelInside laundry

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $224,990 Active 72 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $224,990 Active 71 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $224,990 Active 70 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $224,990 Active 69 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $224,990 Active 68 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $224,990 Active 66 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $224,990 Active 65 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $224,990 Active 64 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $224,990 Active 63 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $224,990 Active 62 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $224,990 Active 61 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $224,990 Active 60 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $224,990 Active 59 DOM
  14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $224,990 Active 58 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $224,990 Active 57 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $224,990 Active 56 DOM
  17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $224,990 Active 55 DOM
  18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $224,990 Active 54 DOM
  19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $224,990 Active 53 DOM
  20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $224,990 Active 52 DOM
  21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $224,990 Active 51 DOM
  22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $224,990 Active 50 DOM
  23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $224,990 Active 49 DOM
  24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $224,990 Active 48 DOM
  25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $224,990 Active 47 DOM
  26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $224,990 Active 46 DOM
  27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $224,990 Active 45 DOM
  28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $224,990 Active 44 DOM
  29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $224,990 Active 43 DOM
  30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $224,990 Active 42 DOM
  31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $224,990 Active 41 DOM
  32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $224,990 Active 40 DOM
  33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $224,990 Active 39 DOM
  34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $224,990 Active 38 DOM
  35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $224,990 Active 37 DOM
  36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $224,990 Active 36 DOM
  37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $224,990 Active 35 DOM
  38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $224,990 Active 34 DOM
  39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $224,990 Active 33 DOM
  40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $224,990 Active 32 DOM
  41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $224,990 Active 31 DOM
  42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $224,990 Active 30 DOM
  43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $224,990 Active 28 DOM
  44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $224,990 Active 27 DOM
  45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $224,990 Active 26 DOM
  46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $224,990 Active 25 DOM
  47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $224,990 Active 24 DOM
  48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $224,990 Active 23 DOM
  49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $224,990 Active 22 DOM
  50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $224,990 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$23,571
− Mortgage interest
−$12,694
− Property taxes
−$3,399
− Insurance
−$1,133
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,886
− Management
−$1,886
− HOA
−$1,032
− Depreciation
−$6,592
Taxable loss
−$5,051
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,212
After-tax cash flow
$8/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This property is in excellent condition with a fresh exterior and interior, modern appliances, and a well-maintained landscaping. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to further enhance its curb appeal and modern appeal.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
  • Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
  • Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal, making the home more desirable for both buyers and renters. ↑
F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southwest Elementary School F FL #1,288/2,144 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Mclaughlin Academy Of Excellence F FL #437/571 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Winter Haven Senior High School F FL #415/667 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Polk
NCES district ID
1201590
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
43% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$43,979
Composite
34.74/100
National rank
#5132
State rank
#62 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Winter Haven

Score
74/100
State rank
#291
US rank
#4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Winter Haven, FL
County
Polk County · 752,975 people
City population
121,740
Metro
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Population (ZIP)
11,824
Household income
$57,760
Rent vs Own
28.5% rent · 71.5% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
752,975 people
By 2030
804,621 · +6.9%
By 2040
906,117 · +20.3%
By 2050
1,000,476 · +32.9%
By 2075
1,197,520 · +59.0%
By 2100
1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Majority White (61%)
Race & ethnicity
White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
Languages at home
79% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

2024 margin
Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
2008→2024 swing
-14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

+0.4% since first listed
7 events — show timeline
  • 2026-08-28 Listed $243,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-08-27 Relisted — Zillow
  • 2026-07-14 Delisted — Zillow
  • 2026-07-09 Relisted — Zillow
  • 2026-06-16 Delisted — Zillow
  • 2026-05-06 Price Changed $243,990 Zillow
  • 2026-04-28 Listed $242,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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