5215 Mescalero Trl · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$137,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Land · 65 Days on market

Built 2010 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this 2 bedroom - 2 bath cozy well-maintined home on a 1/4 acre. Has all round fencing of both rock and chain link fencing. SELLER OFFERING $3,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS!! Great for First Time Home Buyer or an Investment Property. Bring your animals, kids and enjoy the gorgegous Mountain Views in a quiet charming neighbor nestled in Las Cruces. Close to all the amenities. Refridgerated air. Seller is in the process of having the home permanent affixed by Lilley Engineering for financing.

Key facts

• All round fencing
• Mountain views
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• ALL ROUND FENCING
• ROCK AND CHAIN LINK FENCING
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• CLOSE TO ALL THE AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,249 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-13,717
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,182
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,062/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,500 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,500 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,500 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,500 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,500 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,500 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $137,500 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,500 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $137,500 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $137,500 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-05-16
    status Pending 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Come see this 2 bedroom - 2 bath cozy well-maintined home on a 1/4 acre. Has all round fencing of both rock and chain link fencing. SELLER OFFERING $3,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS!! Great for First Time Home Buyer or an Investment Property. Bring your animals, kids and enjoy the gorgegous Mountain Views in a quiet charming neighbor nestled in Las Cruces. Close to all the amenities. Refridgerated air. Seller is in the process of having the home permanent affixed by Lilley Engineering for financing.

12. 2026-03-26
    listed $137,500 Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Come see this 2 bedroom - 2 bath cozy well-maintined home on a 1/4 acre. Has all round fencing of both rock and chain link fencing. SELLER OFFERING $3,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS!! Great for First Time Home Buyer or an Investment Property. Bring your animals, kids and enjoy the gorgegous Mountain Views in a quiet charming neighbor nestled in Las Cruces. Close to all the amenities. Refridgerated air. Seller is in the process of having the home permanent affixed by Lilley Engineering for financing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$2,062
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable loss: −$759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$182
• After-tax cash flow: $1,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-26 Listed $137,500 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $198 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.