18 Velma · Dayton, OH 45420

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1925 4,500 sqft lot $156/sqft · 10% below area Est $134k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this home in the desirable Belmont neighborhood. This home has many possibilities. Two bedrooms on the first floor, new flooring throughout, and a full remodeled bathroom. The basement is unfinished offering additional storage. The exterior has a welcoming porch and a convenient large storage shed. This property offers a balance of privacy and community.

Key facts

• 4,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 31 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.10 acre (assessor)
• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Storage available
• Home design: Single-story frame home with vinyl siding
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Residential zoning

Interior

• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom, approximately 10 x 10
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Wood window frames; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($161/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: River'S Edge Montessori Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,193 of 1,584 statewide, top 76%, 494 students, 0% FRL); Belmont High School (math 5% / reading 20%, grade F, #720 of 781 statewide, top 93%, 1,100 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $120k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,939 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,653
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -10.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2105 King Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0	836 (+9%)	1mo	$125,000	$150	75
134 Marlboro Pl	0.39mi	2/1.0	720 (-6%)	2mo	$60,000	$83	70
434 Bellaire Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0	792 (+3%)	6mo	$152,500	$193	68
2920 Lansing Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	792 (+3%)	1mo	$144,000	$182	65
2436 Mundale Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0	827 (+8%)	3mo	$95,000	$115	64
4032 Woodcliffe Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0	756 (-2%)	4mo	$61,160	$81	63
2901 Lansing Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	720 (-6%)	1mo	$183,000	$254	62
2419 Fauver Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	832 (+8%)	4mo	$138,000	$166	60
714 Nordale Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	686 (-11%)	3mo	$115,000	$168	58
127 Bellaire Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0	858 (+12%)	1mo	$142,000	$166	55
2921 Lansing Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	860 (+12%)	2mo	$174,000	$202	50
1105 Pritz Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	872 (+14%)	2mo	$181,900	$209	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-16,633
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,117
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45420

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,548/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $47	+0% $13	+5% $-21	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-28	+0% $13	+5% $54	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $74	-0.5pp $44	base $13	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2416 Brookline Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	806	$895	$1.11	4d	1	0.16mi
2029 Brookline Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	990	$1,270	$1.28	16d	1	0.18mi
511 Haskins Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$775	$1.29	45d	1	0.22mi
1410 Phillips Ave Unit 1 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	0.38mi
1905 Coventry Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	25d	1	0.44mi
2306 Alice St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	918	$1,200	$1.31	5d	1	0.52mi
737 Wilmington Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	25d	1	0.53mi
922 Wilmington Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	25d	1	0.53mi
933 Wilmington Ave Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	802	$980	$1.22	5d	8	0.57mi
1274 Highland Ave Unit A Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	25d	1	0.58mi
1053 Wilmington Ave Dayton, OH	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1025	$1,295	$1.26	4d	5	0.69mi
2308 Wayne Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	45d	1	0.69mi
1059 Wilmington Ave Unit 1059 1 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,495	$1.36	45d	1	0.70mi
426 Kling Dr Unit B Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$1,500	$2.50	5d	1	0.71mi
344 Firwood Dr Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	739	$1,122	$1.52	4d	15	0.73mi
854 Santa Cruz Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	45d	1	0.77mi
2200 Wayne Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	748	$975	$1.30	4d	1	0.78mi
809 Patterson Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0–1.5	895	$1,075	$1.20	4d	7	0.83mi
1238 Colwick Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	786	$1,250	$1.59	13d	1	0.85mi
13 Anderson St Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	605	$775	$1.28	16d	1	0.88mi
9 Anderson St Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	605	$775	$1.28	45d	1	0.88mi
9 Anderson St Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	25d	1	0.88mi
2012 Saint Charles Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	945	$1,250	$1.32	45d	1	0.88mi
41 Patterson Village Dr Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	553	$920	$1.66	5d	14	0.88mi
16 Mello Ave Unit A Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	1000	$800	$0.80	16d	1	0.89mi
1430 Coventry Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1106	$1,125	$1.02	16d	1	0.89mi
823 Fourman Ct Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	577	$839	$1.45	5d	2	0.91mi
156 Gunckel Ave Apt 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$700	$0.88	25d	1	1.02mi
1132 Wyoming St Unit 2 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	550	$700	$1.27	5d	1	1.03mi
1132 Wyoming St Unit 3 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	550	$700	$1.27	25d	1	1.03mi
1354 Ohmer St Unit 1354C Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$700	$0.78	45d	1	1.04mi
1354 Ohmer St Unit 1354A Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$675	$0.75	25d	1	1.04mi
3100 Linden Ave Unit 3102 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1035	$995	$0.96	45d	1	1.06mi
3311 S Smithville Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1019	$1,295	$1.27	45d	1	1.06mi
1355 Ohmer St Unit 15 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$725	$1.21	16d	1	1.08mi
1659 Hearthstone Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1102	$1,195	$1.08	4d	1	1.08mi
1351 Ohmer St Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$725	$1.21	5d	1	1.08mi
2850 Hazel Ave Unit 1496064P Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	850	$6,259	$7.36	21d	1	1.09mi
57 Gunckel Ave Unit 57 Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	700	$675	$0.96	25d	1	1.15mi
27 Gunckel Ave Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	550	$675	$1.23	45d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $119,900 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $119,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-05-07
   listed $125,000 Active 367-char remark
8. 1999-04-15
   soldstatus $46,000
9. 1985-02-20
   soldstatus $18,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,548 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,709 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$161/yr (+$13/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,548
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$998
• − Management: −$998
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$450
• After-tax cash flow: $611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 24,411
• Household income: $60,588
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.56%
• Current HPI: 241.6543
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.82%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+539.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $119,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $125,000 Dayton MLS
• 1999-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1985-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $18,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,548 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.