902 S 4th Ave · Kelso, WA 98626

$150,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1928 5,227 sqft lot $129/sqft · 125% above area Est $145k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all Flippers! Opportunity in Kelso, WA! This 1928-built home offers a solid foundation and solid structure. Main floor is 1,161 sqft. The attic has space for a large bedroom and the unfinished basement is another 1,161 sqft. Ideal for storage, hobbies or as a workspace. Imagine the possibilities to reconfigure and modernize for today's buyer!

Key facts

• Built 1928
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as fixer condition; Total building area reported (2,522); Main level and lower level areas reported; upper level area reported
• HOA & community: Not a senior community; Zoned residential

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric fuel; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Attached residential property; Built in 1928; No notable view
• Construction: Block, concrete perimeter, and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cedar exterior; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level; Second bedroom on the main level; Third bedroom on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (located on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: No heating specified; No cooling specified
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Dining room; Family room; Great room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.4% in Kelso — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#324 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kelso School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 291 in WA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barnes Elementary (357 students, 85% FRL); Coweeman Middle School (570 students, 64% FRL); Kelso High School (1,424 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.64%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,000
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 3.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 S 5th Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,147 (-1%)	0mo	$324,900	$283	81
803 S 5th Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-5%)	1mo	$165,000	$149	81
1208 S Pacific Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+3%)	3mo	$324,750	$271	71
1212 S 7th Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,280 (+10%)	2mo	$324,900	$254	63
816 Coweeman Ln	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (-10%)	2mo	$270,000	$259	63
804 S 6th Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,316 (+13%)	4mo	$340,000	$258	63
1202 S 3rd Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (+12%)	4mo	$325,000	$250	60
606 S 5th Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,326 (+14%)	6mo	$220,000	$166	58
603 Church St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,311 (+13%)	4mo	$332,000	$253	42
504 COWLITZ WAY St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,021 (-12%)	7mo	$285,000	$279	42
205 Grant St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,268 (+9%)	7mo	$279,900	$221	41
1015 Willow St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,322 (+14%)	4mo	$322,000	$244	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $17,312
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $75,334
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98626

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,776/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
910 Elizabeth St Kelso, WA	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,625	$1.51	43d	1	0.29mi
151 Cardinal Ln Unit None Kelso, WA	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,700	$1.39	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-04-24
   listed $160,000 Active 352-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,776 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,776
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $5,309
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,274
• After-tax cash flow: $6,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelso School District
• NCES district ID: 5300003
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,840
• Composite: 39.83/100
• National rank: #7963
• State rank: #191 of 291 in WA

Livability — Kelso

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #12232

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kelso, WA
• County: Cowlitz County · 77,527 people
• City population: 26,892
• Metro: Longview, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,892
• Household income: $75,528
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 722.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -321.36%
• Current HPI: 262.8196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.10%
• Metro: Longview, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $145,000 RMLS
• 2026-06-04 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $150,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $160,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,776 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.