12899 Mm 15th St · Blanca, CO 81123

$50,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2015 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits! This secluded cabin offers breathtaking views of Mount Blanca and endless potential for the right buyer. In need of significant renovation, this property is a great fixer-upper, investment opportunity, or weekend retreat project. Enjoy peace, privacy, and stunning mountain scenery in a quiet setting. Bring your vision and imagination to transform this hidden gem into something special!

Key facts

• Quiet setting
• 5 acre lot
• Built 2015

Tags

• SIGNIFICANT RENOVATION
• QUIET SETTING
• STUNNING MOUNTAIN SCENERY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 400 building area (above grade finished area); 5.00 acre lot

Exterior

• Utilities: Off-grid utilities; Private water source; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Fixer condition; Property is unattached; Owned by corporation/trust
• Construction: Frame construction; Other roof
• Exterior features: Foothills lot; Natural vegetation; Dirt road frontage (public)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Solar heating
• Interior features: Cooktop

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $493 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#371 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sierra Grande School District No. R-30 (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #148 of 176 in CO (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 229 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Costilla County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $50k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.28%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $23,307
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $60,721
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81123

• Home prices YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $311/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $391

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $522	-5% $507	+0% $493	+5% $479	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $413	-5% $453	+0% $493	+5% $533	+10% $573
Rate	-1.0pp $518	-0.5pp $506	base $493	+0.5pp $480	+1.0pp $467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $50,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Opportunity awaits! This secluded cabin offers breathtaking views of Mount Blanca and endless potential for the right buyer. In need of significant renovation, this property is a great fixer-upper, investment opportunity, or weekend retreat project. Enjoy peace, privacy, and stunning mountain scenery in a quiet setting. Bring your vision and imagination to transform this hidden gem into something special!

5. 2026-06-15
   listed $50,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Opportunity awaits! This secluded cabin offers breathtaking views of Mount Blanca and endless potential for the right buyer. In need of significant renovation, this property is a great fixer-upper, investment opportunity, or weekend retreat project. Enjoy peace, privacy, and stunning mountain scenery in a quiet setting. Bring your vision and imagination to transform this hidden gem into something special!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $311 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $311 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 14 d/yr ≥85°F today · 39 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$311
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$975
• − Management: −$975
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,301
• After-tax cash flow: $4,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Grande School District No. R-30
• NCES district ID: 0804140
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,865
• Composite: 21.67/100
• National rank: #13595
• State rank: #148 of 176 in CO

Livability — Blanca

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #24529

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 726

Population outlook (Costilla County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,560 people
• By 2030: 3,524 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 3,393 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 3,226 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 3,027 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 2,637 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 22% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Costilla

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 55.5% · R 40.9% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.2pp toward R · 2008: 48.9pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+29.0 2012: D+48.6 2008: D+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.06%
• Current HPI: 129.4439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+72.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $50,000 IRES
• 2026-06-15 Listed $50,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $311 · +82.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.