659 Mix Ave · Louisville, KY 40208

$58,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 1910 2,749 sqft lot Est $100k · 41% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in the 40208 area. This classic shotgun home offers a simple layout with strong potential as a rental or value add investment. The property has been vacant for over a year and will need some TLC, but overall is in reasonable condition. Convenient location near the University of Louisville, Churchill Downs, and major city amenities makes it an attractive option for investors seeking an affordable rental property. Or, with a little sweat equity, this could be a great house for a first time home buyer

Key facts

• Near churchill downs
• Classic shotgun home
• 2,749 sq ft lot

Tags

• CLASSIC SHOTGUN HOME
• NEAR CHURCHILL DOWNS
• NEAR MAJOR CITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported as 832 total (above-grade finished 832)
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Shotgun-style architecture; One story; Built in 1910; Facing/entry level: first floor
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Partial chain-link fencing; Sidewalks; Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 20 x 150

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (located on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Three total rooms; Two closets; No basement; No fireplaces; First-floor primary bedroom; First-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $407 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,366 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.55%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,840
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
651 Davies Ave	0.07mi	1/1.0	838 (+1%)	18mo	$90,000	$107	81
2448 Lindbergh Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0 (+1)	810 (-3%)	5mo	$97,500	$120	53
611 Colorado Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (+1)	925 (+11%)	1mo	$110,000	$119	48
2522 Rodman St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+1%)	14mo	$140,000	$167	47
2411 S 5th St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	872 (+5%)	15mo	$155,000	$178	41
1055 Euclid Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (+1)	914 (+10%)	20mo	$87,000	$95	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $21,408
• Equity at exit: $8,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $68,780
• Equity at exit: $5,093

Cash invested: $16,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40208

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,049 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $740/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $500

Max offer price $58,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,725
• Closing costs: $1,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 Bellamy Pl Louisville, KY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1074	$1,758	$1.64	3d	1	0.19mi
409 W Gaulbert Ave Unit 201 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	772	$1,100	$1.42	23d	1	0.47mi
1521 S 4th St Unit 6 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,025	$1.37	23d	1	0.52mi
1521 S 4th St Unit 7 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,125	$1.50	23d	1	0.52mi
1521 S 4th St Unit 12 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$795	$1.14	21d	1	0.52mi
1521 S 4th St Apt 8 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	23d	1	0.52mi
415 Belgravia Ct Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	23d	1	0.53mi
4600 South St Unit PARKWAYE1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$749	$1.07	23d	1	0.54mi
1800 S 2nd St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	575	$950	$1.65	16d	7	0.62mi
1055 Euclid Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	914	$1,325	$1.45	23d	1	0.63mi
1702 S 2nd St Apt 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	875	$1,100	$1.26	23d	1	0.63mi
1702 S 2nd St Apt 3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	625	$875	$1.40	23d	1	0.63mi
1606 Algonquin Pkwy Unit 22 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	626	$750	$1.20	23d	1	0.69mi
216 W Burnett Ave Unit 226B Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	775	$1,050	$1.35	17d	1	0.69mi
1436 S 2nd St Unit 1436-1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,095	$1.09	11d	1	0.74mi
2501 S 4th St Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	897	$1,119	$1.25	3d	1	0.74mi
1312 S 6th St Unit 609 FT-1B Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	525	$825	$1.57	23d	1	0.75mi
1310 S 6th St Unit 1310 S 6th-3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	679	$825	$1.22	3d	1	0.75mi
1438 Lillian Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	777	$1,050	$1.35	17d	1	0.76mi
427 Park Ave Unit 6 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,195	$1.71	23d	1	0.77mi
512 W Ormsby Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	573	$1,248	$2.18	1d	1	0.79mi
2501 S 3rd St Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,350	$1.34	3d	2	0.84mi
2716 S 6th St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	881	$950	$1.08	16d	1	0.91mi
1245 S 4th St Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	3d	5	0.94mi
508 W Oak St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	23d	1	0.95mi
1231 S 4th St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$925	$1.42	23d	1	0.95mi
1231 S 4th St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$925	$1.42	21d	1	0.95mi
208 W Ormsby Ave Unit 4 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	23d	1	0.95mi
1319 S 2nd St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	600	$895	$1.49	23d	1	0.95mi
1120 Weller Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	912	$1,500	$1.64	3d	1	0.95mi
1146 S 6th St Unit 2B Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	23d	1	0.97mi
508 M St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.5	1035	$1,100	$1.06	23d	1	0.98mi
1305 S 17th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	23d	1	1.00mi
1768 W Hill St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	675	$925	$1.37	23d	1	1.01mi
1318 S Brook St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	23d	1	1.04mi
2805 S 4th St #1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	750	$725	$0.97	21d	1	1.04mi
1305 Larchmont Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1113	$1,350	$1.21	16d	1	1.05mi
1233 S 2nd St Apt 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	950	$875	$0.92	3d	1	1.05mi
1710 Saint Louis Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	720	$1,000	$1.39	3d	1	1.05mi
1792 W Gaulbert Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	915	$950	$1.04	23d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   price $58,900
2. 2026-03-24
   price $63,800
3. 2026-03-13
   listed $68,900 Active
4. 2021-12-24
   historical
5. 2021-06-24
   listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,299
• − Property taxes: −$740
• − Insurance: −$294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,007
• − Management: −$1,007
• − Depreciation: −$1,713
• Taxable income: $4,526
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,086
• After-tax cash flow: $4,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 15,605
• Household income: $39,560
• Rent vs Own: 73.8% rent · 26.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1136.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 22% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.97%
• Current HPI: 240.6261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $58,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $63,800 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $68,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-12-24 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-06-24 Listed $70,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $740 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.